Faced with the contradictory signals sent by Moscow, Westerners are doubly cautious about the chances of de-escalation in Ukraine. “Words are good, but we are waiting for actions”, insisted, Tuesday, February 15, the head of French diplomacy, Jean-Yves Le Drian. By announcing the return to their garrisons of certain units deployed along the Ukrainian border on Tuesday, the Kremlin took Westerners by surprise and, through this first act, wanted to send a message. As they feared a Russian offensive around Feb. 16, according to US intelligence, Russia decided what could be the start of a military withdrawal, signaling a detente.
Except that at the same time, in a well-orchestrated military-political choreography, the deputies of the Duma (the lower house of the Russian Parliament) called on the Kremlin to recognize the independence of Donbass, the pro-Russian territories in the east of the ‘Ukraine. Leverage of Moscow in its standoff with the West, the recognition of the republics of Donetsk and Lugansk, at the heart of the clashes organized by Moscow between the Ukrainian army and the separatists since 2014, would bury the Minsk agreements, the basis of the laborious process of peace in Ukraine.
The Duma’s initiative remains a mere resolution, with no concrete implications. But, by calling for these two territories to become “Self-Governing, Sovereign and Independent States”, the deputies threaten the efforts of Paris to revive the negotiations. The Minsk agreements, under Franco-German mediation, provide for the return of Donetsk and Lugansk under the control of Kiev. The relaunch of these discussions is one of the achievements that Emmanuel Macron welcomed after his visit to the Kremlin on Monday, February 7.
The French president then confided that he had received assurances that the Duma’s project would not succeed. “He asked Vladimir Putin not to recognize the independence of Donetsk and Lugansk. The Russian president said it was a parliamentary initiative that he did not approve of,” recalled Tuesday the Elysée. A version that has not been confirmed by the Kremlin. Dmitri Peskov, the spokesman for Vladimir Putin, contented himself with asserting that there was no “no official decision”. And, maintaining the vagueness, he recalled that the Duma “reflects the opinion of the population”.
Mixed messages
“This allows Moscow to play on two counts and to say to the West: “We are ready for de-escalation but, if the negotiations fail, we have in reserve the card of the recognition of Donetsk and Lugansk. It would be a real blow for the West, warns Andrei Kortunov, director of the Russian Council, a think tank on international issues in Moscow. No one knows what’s going on in Putin’s head, but with these two new moves he continues his game of chess. »
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