The HuffPost
CORONAVIRUS – No change in the timing of lifting of restrictions. Government spokesman Gabriel Attal confirmed this at the end of the Council of Ministers on Tuesday February 15, recalling that the epidemic figures are still going in the right direction. It is therefore from this Wednesday, February 16 that the French can reconnect with their habits of before Covid-19: dancing in a nightclub, standing up in concert or snacking on the train.
The next step will be to lighten the health protocol in schools. From the start of the winter holidays, children no longer have to wear their masks at recess or during sports activities.
This lifting of restrictions is made possible by Covid-19 figures which continue to decline in France. An increasingly visible decline in hospitals. 2,102 people were admitted to hospital on February 14, more than 600 people less than a week ago. Among them, 244 people were admitted to intensive care, this is 20% less than last week.
To fully understand what is happening day by day while waiting for the end of the wave, The HuffPost invite you to watch the latest Covid figuresbut especially their evolution in maps and curves. An important point to keep in mind before continuing your reading: the data is always published in the evening. Thus, the updated figures for Wednesday February 16 are those published the day before, Tuesday February 15.
You should also know that these are not the figures for the day, but those on D-1 for the number of hospitalizations and the number of new confirmed cases. For the incidence and the positivity rate, the D-3 screening figures (on the date of the test) are used.
National Covid-19 curves
Tuesday, February 15, the Directorate General for Health has identified 142,253 positive casesagainst 235,267 a week earlier.
If we look at the average over one week (the blue curve), we see that the drop is still strong, with 119,702 cases recorded against more than 211,716 on Sunday January 30. A drop that has shown no signs of abating since the end of January.
The figures on D-1 are practical for monitoring the evolution of the epidemic as closely as possible, but are likely to vary from one week to another depending on the speed of feedback of the results. To be sure of the trends, it is best to look at the data published by Santé Publique France, which shows the number of cases on the date of screening, with a delay of three days.
The first graph below shows the share of the Omicron variant and the Delta variant in the positive cases. As you can see, Omicron has won, and if Delta has not completely disappeared, it represents 400 daily cases as of February 12, compared to more than 133,000 for Omicron, although the latter is down in absolute numbers.
The graphs below show the incidence, as well as other essential indicators to follow the evolution of the epidemic.
We see that the drop in admissions to conventional hospitalization as well as to intensive care is confirmed. The latter were on a plateau, even though the incidence had been collapsing for more than ten days. The number of daily deaths, which always arrives with a delay compared to hospitalizations, also seems to have peaked.
To fully appreciate recent developments, here are the same indicators, but focusing on the last two months.
Meaning of the different indicators
- Incidence rate: this is the number of cases detected per 100,000 inhabitants. It is very useful, because it gives an inventory of the epidemic in almost real time (a few days lag for the appearance of symptoms, or even before their appearance for contact cases). But it is dependent on screening capabilities.
- Positivity rate: this is the number of positive tests compared to the total tests carried out. It makes it possible to “control” the incidence rate. If there are many cases in a territory (incidence rate), but this is only due to very developed screening, the positivity rate will be low. Conversely, if it increases, this means that a larger proportion of people tested are positive, but above all that the infected people who are not tested, who fall through the cracks, are potentially more numerous. However, this dynamic has become difficult to read since the generalization of self-tests, which are not counted.
- Occupancy rate of intensive care beds by Covid-19 patients: It is a scrutinized figure, because it allows to know if the hospitals are able to manage the influx of patients. It is very useful, because there is little risk of bias: it does not depend on screening and bed occupancy is well reported to the authorities. Its disadvantage: there is a significant delay between the contamination and the passage in intensive care, of approximately two to three weeks.
- Intensive care admissions and new hospitalizations: smoothed average over 7 days of people entering the hospital
- Death in hospital: Like revives, it is a rather reliable indicator, but with a significant delay.
- R effective: this indicator represents the actual “virus reproduction rate”, i.e. the number of people infected by a contagious case. It is calculated by epidemiologists and also has a significant delay.
In such an uncertain period, it is important to look at trends over a longer period of time, and in particular the rate of increase or decrease in cases and hospital indicators. For this, it is interesting to look at the evolution over a week, in percentage, of these figures:
The incidence continues its sharp decrease observed since the end of January. Hospital admissions, followed by resuscitation, have finally begun a pronounced decline.
All the bars pointing down, we can say that the peak of the 5th wave has really been reached (provided that this decline lasts).
The Omicron variant changes the shape of the wave
While incidence and positivity have exploded, there has not been as much hospital saturation as in previous waves. Why? Because the Omicron variant, today responsible for 99% of cases, changes the game with its lesser severity. It is difficult to know to what extent this drop in virulence is linked to its mutations or to the fact that it infects vaccinated people, and therefore strongly protected against serious forms.
Still, the dropout between cases and hospitalizations or resuscitation is flagrant. The graph below shows the evolution of the number of cases, hospitalizations and intensive care admissions in percentage compared to the highest reached during the second wave of Covid-19, in November 2020.
As we can see, the difference between cases and hospitalizations or intensive care admissions is obvious with Omicron. Before that, lighter divergences are visible between the waves. They are difficult to explain with certainty, but several tracks can be evoked: the severity Alpha and Delta variants, the evolution of the vaccine campaign, etc.
And this difference between severe cases and forms is actually even greater. To understand, you have to look at the following graph, which shows people who entered the hospital because of the disease Covid-19, or for another reason, but who are otherwise positive for the coronavirus.
Before January, the share of these people hospitalized with Covid was small, but as we can see, it exploded with the Omicron wave. Please note that the fact of not being hospitalized for Covid does not mean that the disease cannot aggravate the patient’s situation.
Map of the incidence rate by department
If we look at the evolution of the epidemic in a more local way, we see that all the metropolitan departments are on the decline. It is in the northwestern departments that the decrease in incidence is most striking, with a drop of more than 50% in around fifteen departments.
It should be remembered that in metropolitan France, all departments were hitherto at unprecedented levels of incidence. But it is now a thing of the past since several departments have fallen below the 1000 mark.. Some departments, such as Seine-Saint-Denis, are now even approaching 500 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.
The graph below allows you to analyze the situation in your department (including the overseas departments and regions) in more detail. In many departments, particularly in Île-de-France where Omicron appeared earlier, the incidence continues its sharp fall, followed more recently by the positivity rate.
The intensive care occupancy rate map
As for hospital indicators, the decline can also be seen in almost all regions. If the tension remains very clear in Paca (87% occupancy), we see that we have fallen below 50% occupancy rate in Pays-de-la-Loire and Normandy.
A very effective vaccination, but which skates
How to explain this fifth wave? It is difficult to say as the coronavirus manages to thwart the forecasts, but it must already be remembered that an increase was foreseeable from the beginning of autumn with the dominance of the Delta variant, which is much more contagious. Since then, the Omicron variant has come to play spoilsport.
A controlled rise in the epidemic in the middle of winter, with limited measures (such as the health pass, the wearing of a mask, the ventilation of closed places, etc.), was only possible thanks to vaccination. If the vaccine does not provide 100% protection, it reduces the risk of infection and drastically lowers the risk of developing a severe form of Covid-19.
Today, 79% of the population is double vaccinated, as can be seen in the graph below, with disparities between age groups. Children, for example, are very, very, very little vaccinated, unlike 70-80 year olds, 99% of whom have received a dose.
But we now know that the effectiveness of the vaccine against the infection decreases over time, especially six months after vaccination, and even more so with the Omicron variant. Protection against severe forms of Covid-19 remains high, but still seems to be decreasing, especially among the elderly.
This is why many countries, including France, have launched a recall campaign. In his forecasts from the end of November, the Institut Pasteur estimates that a booster dose, by further reducing the risk of hospitalization of those most at risk and by reducing the risk of being infected, can theoretically lower the peak of hospitalizations . Thus, a reminder for the over 65s reduces the height of the peak by 20%, while a reminder for all adults causes it to fall by 44%.
The brilliance of the Omicron variant makes this third dose even more essential.
Vaccines still effective against Covid-19
The effectiveness of vaccines and of the third dose can easily be seen if we analyze the number of vaccinated or non-vaccinated positive people, hospitalized or in intensive care.
On the other hand, we must be careful: more than 91% of adults are vaccinated. It is therefore logical that there are many vaccinated people in hospitals. But if we compare with equal numbers (how many hospitalized for a million vaccinated, versus how many hospitalized for a million non-vaccinated), we can see that the vaccine is very effective.
The proof with the graphs below. We also see that the booster increases the effectiveness of the vaccine even more.