Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky distanced himself on Monday from alarmist comments from Washington about the risk of an imminent war with Russia. This is not the first time that the Ukrainian leader has taken the opposite view of NATO countries since the start of this crisis, while calling for their military support. A complicated balancing act.
He looks serious in front of the cameras and the situation is no less so. However, Volodymyr Zelensky’s remarks are more like a joke. “We are told that the Russian invasion will begin on Wednesday February 16. I therefore declare that today will be the day of unity in Ukraine”, affirmed the Ukrainian President, monday 14 february.
Ukrainians will thus benefit from a public holiday on Wednesday, when Washington has indicated that it has information suggesting that Moscow is in great danger of declaring war. Volodymyr Zelensky did not mention any particular effort of additional military mobilization to deal with this threat, simply calling on his compatriots to sing the national anthem at 10 a.m. and raise the flag in order to “show the world our unity”.
Anything But Panic
A response that may seem out of step with the multiple alarm bells sounded by Washington and other Western capitals. In any case, it is not the first time that Volodymyr Zelensky has dealt with the alarmist rhetoric of the United States and NATO countries in general with a certain irony.
It has even become, since the beginning of the crisis with Russia, a sort of trademark for the president and ex-comedian. At the end of January, he had asked the American president, Joe Biden, to “calm the message”, while the White House was already warning about the possible imminence of a Russian attack. “We are not on board the Titanic,” he added, suggesting that Ukraine did not feel that it was on the edge of a precipice.
Volodymyr Zelensky also asked, last week, Western countries to “provide him with proof” that Vladimir Putin is preparing to launch his tanks on Kiev.
“You have to understand that Ukrainians have been living with the Russian threat since 2014, and they have no respect for leaders who would panic. Volodymyr Zelensky knows this and has to be calm in the face of adversity,” underlines James Sherr, specialist in Russia and Ukraine, at the Estonian Institute of International Politics of the International Defense and Security Center of Tallinn, contacted by France 24.
Another reason behind the Ukrainian president’s bravado is the economic situation. “It had improved since Zelensky came to power, and the last thing he would want was panic over the risk of war destabilizing the economy. Panic would only serve Russian interests”, summarizes Andrew Wilson, specialist in Ukraine at University College London, contacted by France 24.
Not to mention the personal inclination of Volodymyr Zelensky, who grew up in the Russian-speaking region of southeastern Ukraine. “Even if he no longer has any confidence in Vladimir Putin, he remains imbued with the idea that the Russians are the friends of the Ukrainians and that a serious provocation is needed for a war between the two countries”, notes Ryhor Nizhnikau , specialist in Ukrainian politics at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, contacted by France 24.
Between the Russian hammer and NATO’s anvil
But the Ukrainian president is not content to minimize the risk of a military conflict. He also sometimes throws oil on the fire. He multiplied the calls to the allied countries of NATO to obtain weapons and thanked, on several occasions, Joe Biden and the British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, for the sending of military equipment which will allow Ukraine “to face the Russian threat”.
This moody rhetoric by Volodymyr Zelensky “gives the impression that the Ukrainian president is giving an anxiety-inducing speech, when Ukrainians need reassurance, and brushing aside the Russian threat when he should be more firm against Moscow”, regrets Ryhor Nizhnikau.
But the Ukrainian president has little choice. “He must do everything to get as much help as possible from NATO countries while trying not to increase military pressure,” says Julia Friedrich, specialist in security issues between Russia and Ukraine at Global Public. Policy Institute, a research center based in Berlin, contacted by France 24.
The other option, sometimes mentioned in the media, would be for Volodymyr Zelensky to opt for a “Finlandization” of Ukraine – that is to say adopt a neutral posture towards Russia and NATO on the model of Finnish diplomacy. But “it is not possible, simply because it was the Ukrainian approach in 2014 when Moscow launched the invasion of Crimea”, recalls Andrew Wilson.
A matter of political survival
The Ukrainian president’s balancing act is also due to the internal political situation in Ukraine, and in particular Volodymyr Zelensky’s popularity rating. It has fallen sharply since coming to power in 2019. “Its main problem is its political survival. In Ukraine, there is this feeling that the great powers are negotiating an agreement on the back of the country, so it must not appear to have chosen a side too openly, lest it be criticized for having validated any concessions to end the crisis. It would be a political death warrant for him”, summarizes James Sherr, of the Estonian Institute of International Politics.
“He must also start thinking about his possible re-election,” says Ryhor Nizhnikau. The deadline may be distant – March 2024 – but he must find an electorate because “he can no longer play the newcomer card in the political arena”, confirms Julia Friedrich. A quest for votes that is not easy: most slots are already occupied, since the party of former President Petro Poroshenko brings together the Ukrainians most in favor of NATO integration, while several politicians are already trying to seduce those who want to get closer to Russia. “Volodymyr Zelensky is left with the voters of his native region of the south-east who do not want a forced march into NATO, without however refusing it, and who consider Russia to be a friendly country even ‘they reject the Russian leaders’, believes Ryhor Nizhnikau.
In other words, during this crisis, Volodymyr Zelensky has every interest in cultivating ambiguity both on the international stage and in the domestic political arena. This allowed him not to appear as a puppet of NATO “while recovering political and military support from Western countries”, notes Andrew Wilson.
But it is a dangerous game because “he can appear as someone who does not know which political foot to dance on, which can attract criticism from all sides and weaken the executive at a pivotal moment for the country” , concludes Ryhor Nizhnikau.