Russia sent, Tuesday, February 15, the first signals of a relaxation in the crisis around Ukraine which has lasted since the end of 2021. Russian forces deployed for weeks near the Ukrainian border have begun to return to their respective garrisons, Moscow announced. While Vladimir Putin assured that he wanted to continue negotiations with the West, Paris said he was waiting for “actions”.
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Moscow announces the start of a withdrawal of soldiers from the Ukrainian border
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced on Tuesday the return to their garrison of soldiers who had been stationed on the Ukrainian border. “The units of the Southern and Western military districts, which have completed their tasks, have already started loading on the means of rail and road transport and will start returning to their garrisons today”, detailed the spokesman of the ministry, Igor Konashenkov, quoted by the Russian press agencies. He, however, gave no indication of the number of forces involved as more than 100,000 Russian troops were deployed along the border with Ukraine. Russia is also continuing its maneuvers in Belarus, neighboring Ukraine, until February 20.
The Kremlin immediately confirmed this partial withdrawal of Russian forces, citing a “normal process” and denouncing “hysteria” West about a supposed imminent invasion. “We have always said that after the completion of the exercises (…) troops would return to their original garrisons. That’s what’s going on here.”, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. Moscow will organize other “exercises all over Russia” because “it is our right to organize maneuvers on our territory, wherever we deem it appropriate”, he added.
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Cautious reactions from Westerners
The head of Ukrainian diplomacy, Dmytro Kuleba, reacted by rejoicing that Ukraine and the West have “succeeded in preventing any further escalation by Russia”. However, it is still too early, according to him, to see a real drop in tensions. “The situation remains tense but under control”Mr. Kuleba said. “Russia makes all kinds of statements all the time, that’s why we have a rule: we will believe in a de-escalation when we see the withdrawal [des troupes] »he added.
France has invited Russia to pass ” words “ to “acts”. “Lyrics are good. We are waiting for the actions. If the actions are there, it will be even better”launched the head of French diplomacy, Jean-Yves Le Drian, at the National Assembly.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stressed at a press conference that “there is signals from Moscow for further diplomacy,” corn “no sign of de-escalation” has not yet been observed in the field.
“This encourages cautious optimism (…), but the movement of troops by Russia does not allow an easing of tensions if the heavy equipment remains in place, because they can return quickly”
Caution is also required on the side of London, where Boris Johnson has indicated that information concerning a de-escalation was not “still not encouraging”. The British Prime Minister mentioned in particular “Russian field hospitals built near the Ukrainian border in Belarus” and “more battle groups of battalions moving closer to the border”.
The announcement of the withdrawal of Russian troops from the border with Ukraine must be “followed by facts”warned Tuesday the head of German diplomacy, Annalena Baerbock. “So far there have only been announcements and these must now be followed by facts, because we need trust, we need security for all citizens here at home in Europe”she said in Madrid, during a joint press conference with her Spanish counterpart, José Manuel Albares.
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Vladimir Putin says he wants negotiation, not war
Vladimir Poutine assured, Tuesday, not to want a war and said to wish the continuation of the discussions with the Westerners.
“Do we want [d’une guerre] or not ? Of course not. This is why we have put forward our proposals for a negotiation process”declared the Russian president, during a joint press conference with the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, received in the Kremlin, a week after the French president, Emmanuel Macron. “We are ready to continue working together. We are ready to go down the negotiation road. »
Sustainable security in Europe is not “possible only with Russia” and cannot be obtained against it, estimated, for his part, the German Chancellor, assuring that the current state of tensions around Ukraine is not “not desperate”. “It is clear to all Europeans that lasting security cannot be achieved against Russia, but [est] possible only with Russia”said Scholz. “So it should be possible to find a solution”he added, because “as difficult and serious as the current situation may seem”it is, according to him, “not desperate”.
“The fact that we now know that some troops are withdrawing is, in any case, a good sign. We hope there will be more sequels”said the German leader, convinced that diplomatic efforts to avoid a conflict are “far from exhausted”.
Since Monday, Moscow seems to be sending appeasement signals to Westerners. Russia thus assured on Monday that a diplomatic settlement of the crisis remained possible and put an end to certain military maneuvers, just as the fear of an invasion reached its peak.
Moving away from the bellicose declarations of recent days, the head of Russian diplomacy, Sergei Lavrov, estimated on Monday that there was “always a chance” to find a compromise. “Our possibilities are far from exhausted”he said, during a meeting with Mr. Putin, broadcast on television, even proposing to “extend and expand” dialogue. The Russian president, whose intentions remain, for the moment, indecipherable for Western capitals, contented himself with a laconic acquiescence. On Monday evening, the Russian Ambassador to the European Union, Vladimir Tchijov, assured: “We will not invade Ukraine unless provoked. »
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The situation remains fragile and confused on the spot
The Pentagon said that Moscow had reinforced its military force on the borders of Ukraine during the weekend. The American company Maxar Technologies, which has been monitoring Russian military deployments on the Ukrainian border for several weeks, echoed this on Tuesday. According to the company, satellite images from Sunday and Monday show a significant increase in activity in Belarus, the Crimean peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014, as well as in western Russia.
On Tuesday morning, Russian deputies also voted for an appeal to Vladimir Putin for Russia to recognize pro-Russian separatist territories in eastern Ukraine as “Self-Governing, Sovereign and Independent States”. Such recognition would mark the end of the peace process initiated by the Minsk agreements, signed under Franco-German mediation, providing for the eventual return of these territories to the control of Kiev. Asked about the issue, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov assured reporters that there was currently no “no official decision”but that the request of the deputies “reflected the opinion of the population” Russian.
Moscow has always denied any warlike desire but demanded guarantees for its security, in particular the promise that Ukraine would never join NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Westerners have always refused such a commitment. At the risk of irritating the Kremlin, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated on Monday that Kiev wanted to join the Atlantic Alliance in order to “ensure their safety”.
While American media had mentioned the date of Wednesday as a potential day of a Russian invasion, the Ukrainian president has continued to call for calm the international community and its population. He decreed on February 16 “unity day”calling on Ukrainians to show their patriotism on this day by wearing the blue and yellow colors of the flag.