UKRAINE. While the threat of an invasion by Russia in Ukraine has been looming for several weeks, Russian soldiers posted on the Ukrainian border have withdrawn, it was announced on Tuesday, February 15, 2022. The sign of appeasement?
The essential
- Will there be a war between Russia and Ukraine? This is the question that has put Europe under pressure since the start of 2022. Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, is waving the thinly disguised threat of an invasion of this neighboring country against a backdrop of political disagreement with his Ukrainian counterpart.
- But while “well over 100,000” soldiers were posted at various points on the border between the two countries, Russia announced on Tuesday February 15, 2022 that it would send several units back to their garrisons. Ukraine said it was relieved to have “succeeded in preventing any further escalation from Russia”.
- However, NATO said it had noted “no sign of de-escalation on the ground”, when Boris Johnson spoke of “mixed signals”. Is the gesture of appeasement as sincere as advertised?
- The day before, tensions were at their peak after a tumultuous weekend. “Are there all the elements for a strong offensive by Russian forces in Ukraine? Yes, it’s true, it’s possible there, it’s possible quickly,” said the Minister of Foreign Affairs. French foreign affairs Jean-Yves Le Drian.
- At the heart of the tensions between Russia and Ukraine: the latter’s accession to NATO. What Russian President Vladimir Putin opposes because of Ukraine’s past, which until 1991 belonged to the USSR.
- Follow the evolution of the situation live.
Live
16:01 – “Good signs” from Russia according to Germany, which “still hopes for a follow-up”
For his part, Olaf Scholz spoke of the withdrawal of some Russian soldiers from the border with Ukraine as a “good sign”, adding “hope[er] more follow-up”. The German Chancellor indeed indicated that diplomatic efforts are “far from being exhausted” and that discussions with Russia should continue: “it is clear to all Europeans that lasting security cannot be achieved against Russia, but only with Russia”.
15:47 – A war between Russia and Ukraine? “Of course not” says Putin
Following his meeting with Olaf Scholz, German Chancellor Vladimir Putin spoke at a press conference. The President of Russia has assured that he does not want war with Ukraine. “Of course not. That’s why we put forward our proposals for a negotiation process,” he defended himself, adding that he wanted to “continue the work” with the West.
15:29 – Germany asks Russia for the withdrawal of troops to be effective
While doubts arise about the sincerity of Russia which announced the withdrawal of some of its troops posted on the border with Ukraine, Annalena Baerbock, head of German diplomacy, urged Vladimir Putin to implement his words: “so far there have only been announcements and these must now be followed by facts, because we need confidence, we need security for all citizens here at home in Europe”.
15:12 – Boris Johnson discusses “mixed signals” from Russia and “field hospitals under construction”
Has a de-escalation really been initiated by Russia? In a video statement, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that he was receiving “mixed signals”. The head of the United Kingdom government spoke of “a Russian openness to conversations”, while warning that “Russian field hospitals [sont] under construction near the border with Ukraine, in Belarus”, which is similar, according to him, “as a preparation for an invasion”.
There are signs of a diplomatic opening with Russia, but the intelligence we are seeing today is not encouraging.
We have a tough package of sanctions ready if Russia chooses war.
We maintain that diplomacy and de-escalation is the only way forward. pic.twitter.com/JHveOHxIko
—Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) February 15, 2022
2:02 p.m. – “No sign of de-escalation on the ground” according to NATO
While Russia has announced that it is starting to withdraw certain military troops posted near the border with Ukraine, NATO has welcomed “signs from Moscow that diplomacy can continue”. However, Jens Stoltenberg, the organisation’s secretary general, spoke only of “cautious optimism”. And for good reason: “we have not identified any sign of de-escalation on the ground”.
12:38 – Olaf Scholz, German Chancellor, meets Vladimir Putin
A week after the arrival of Emmanuel Macron in Moscow, it is the turn of the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, to be received by Vladimir Putin, this Tuesday, February 15, 2022. The meeting between the two leaders began at midday, under the same conditions as for the coming from Emmanuel Macron. Angela Merkel’s successor arrived in the capital with the ambition to continue the dialogue and prevent Russia from carrying out any attack. If not, Olaf Scholz would be ready to take severe sanctions, although Germany is the main consumer of Russian natural gas.
12:19 – Where are the Russian soldiers stationed?
Since the fall of 2021, Russia has deployed a number of military personnel to various locations on the border with Ukraine. As a map produced by AFP shows, Vladimir Putin’s troops are concentrated on the northern border between Russia and Ukraine, in the south in Crimea, but also around Donbass, this pro-Russian separatist region of Ukraine. or even in the center. Enough to encircle the Ukrainian neighbor. This map, produced on February 13, 2022, does not take into account Russia’s February 15 announcements announcing the withdrawal of certain troops.
12:05 – Russia denounces the “hysteria” of the West
On the sidelines of the announcement of the withdrawal of certain troops, Russia refuted any ambition to invade Ukraine, evoking a “hysteria” of the West, according to the term used by Dmitry Peskov, spokesperson for the presidency . According to him, the presence of soldiers at the border, then their withdrawal, was a “normal process”. “We have always said that after the completion of the exercises, the troops will return to their home garrisons. That’s what happens there, that’s the usual process,” he added.
11:53 – Ukraine relieved to have “prevented any further escalation”
After Russia’s announcement to withdraw some troops, Dmytro Kouleba, head of Ukrainian diplomacy, expressed slight relief: “together with our partners, we managed to prevent any further escalation on the part of Russia “.
11:44 – Russia announces the withdrawal of soldiers posted on the border with Ukraine
After three days of extreme tension between Ukraine and Russia, the latter announced on Tuesday, February 15, 2022, that “the units of the southern and western military districts (border areas of Ukraine, editor’s note) which have completed their tasks, have already started loading onto rail and road means of transport and will begin to return to their garrisons,” according to Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov.
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Is a war to be feared between Russia and Ukraine?
On February 14, Boris Johnson said he feared an invasion of Russia “within the next 48 hours”, after a weekend during which the climate was feverish due, in particular, to calls launched by the United States , Great Britain, Belgium, Germany or even the Netherlands, recommending that their citizens established in Ukraine leave the country. Russia also has, according to the United States, “well over 100,000” soldiers stationed at the border. If the telephone exchanges between the French and American leaders with their Russian and Ukrainian counterparts have multiplied in an attempt to calm the situation, a military exercise has been organized at sea by Russia, while the United States has sent 3,000 soldiers in Poland, a border country with Ukraine… but also the Kaliningrad oblast, this Russian exclave wedged between Poland and Lithuania, both members of the European Union.
After a weekend of high tension, Boris Johnson called on Vladimir Putin on Monday to step back from the “precipice”. For his part, Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine, urged his neighbors to de-escalate: “Russia’s military activities on the Ukrainian border are not understandable. There are no reasonable grounds for such a deployment military. And we call on Russia to seize the existing offers of dialogue.” For its part, Russia replied, via a conversation between Vladimir Putin and his Minister of Foreign Affairs, broadcast on television, “that there are always chances” to find a point of agreement with the West. “It seems to me that our possibilities are far from being exhausted […] At this stage, I would suggest continuing and expanding them,” Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. “The priority is to avoid a war, we must reach a diplomatic solution,” Olaf said. Scholz, the German Chancellor, who also invited himself to the negotiating table.
But on Tuesday, February 15, Igor Konashenkov, spokesman for the Russian Ministry of Defense, indicated that “the units of the southern and western military districts (border areas of Ukraine, editor’s note) which have completed their tasks, have already started to load on the means of rail and road transport and will begin to return to their garrisons”. How to start a de-escalation?
What is the origin of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine?
Russia and Ukraine have a special bond. Ukraine was indeed one of the entities constituting the USSR, until the dissolution of the latter in 1991 and the proclamation of Ukrainian independence. However, Ukraine retains ties with Russia. In 2013, while a pro-Russian president was in office (Viktor Yanukovych), a revolution broke out in the country and ousted the head of state. In repression Vladimir Putin annexes Crimea, a Ukrainian territory. In the country, pro and anti-Russian clash. Ukrainian separatists favorable to the neighboring country then took control of the Dombass region with the support of Russia.
If, for a few years, the white flag was waved, Vladimir Putin suddenly deployed tens of thousands of men at various points on the border between Russia and Ukraine, in the fall of 2021. A worrying maneuver explained, in particular , by the political will of Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine, to join NATO. Which, for Vladimir Putin, is “unacceptable”. The boss of the Kremlin indeed judges that “Russia has been stripped” with the independence of Ukraine. From there to wanting to get their hands on the country? Lately, international diplomats have wanted to calm the ardor of a Vladimir Putin who, however, certifies that he has no intention of invading.
Where are the Russian soldiers positioned on the border with Ukraine?
According to a map produced by AFP, Russian soldiers are posted at several points on the border between Russia and Ukraine, which is 1576 km long. According to AFP, the forces deployed by Vladimir Putin are deployed at various strategic points. In the south-west of Russia: first in Crimea, but also near Donbass, this region of Ukraine held by pro-Russian separatists. Russia has also positioned soldiers halfway, about 100 kilometers west of Ukraine’s second city, Kharkiv, also the former capital of Ukraine between 1917 and 1934. Military forces are also present north of the Russian-Ukrainian border, near the border with Belarus. It is one of the closest border points to Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, located just under 300 kilometers away. In addition, a few rear bases have been set up, further back from the border: in a forest region in the east of Belarus, in Voronezh, as well as in Volgograd. The Russian-Ukrainian border is therefore well surrounded by the men of Vladimir Putin.