Why the regional elections say almost nothing about the 2022 presidential election

The right is now “the only force of alternation”, the Socialist Party is “the driving force” on the left, “ecology is the only force in dynamics” … At the end of the regional elections, several political leaders wanted to see in the election results, proof of an upheaval in the political landscape in view of the presidential election of 2022.

Listening to them, the historic parties – the Republicans on the right and the Socialist Party on the left – would have returned to the center of the game in favor of these regions. And the second round of the next presidential election would not necessarily oppose Emmanuel Macron to Marine Le Pen, contrary to forecasts published for months by pollsters.

>> To read: Regional 2021: a poll that restores confidence to the right

“What some will present as the return of the left and the right is not reflected in the polls for 2022. The elections are more and more disconnected from each other”, nuance Chloé Morin, political scientist associated with the Jean Foundation -Jaurès, to AFP.

Especially since the record abstention from regional elections complicates the analysis of the ballot. In reality, the truths of this early summer 2021 risk being quickly denied when fall comes. France 24 explains why.

• Abstention distorts any serious interpretation of the ballot

With an abstention rate of 66%, the regional elections were marked by a strong disinterest, or disenchantment, of the French for politics – although the stakes of this poll affect their daily lives closely. With so many voters having chosen not to go to the polls, it is impossible to seriously analyze the results. Useless, therefore, to draw conclusions concerning the presidential election of 2022 – an election which, traditionally, mobilizes more.

>> To see: Jérémie Peltier: “We live in an apathetic moment vis-à-vis democracy”

The 15 to 20 million voters who abstained on Sunday and will vote in 2022 will “have a decisive influence” on the presidential election, underlines Dominique Reynié, director general of the Foundation for political innovation. However, being “rather from the popular and middle categories”, they will express “without doubt [leur] dissatisfaction rather than their contentment “, he predicted on Europe 1. Translation: if the outgoing have been returned to the regional, it will not necessarily be the same for the presidential election.

“What is striking about this election is a form of resignation, even sadness, including among voters,” considers political scientist Céline Braconnier (Sciences Po Saint-Germain-en-Laye), a specialist in abstention. “We must remain humble with regard to these results which do not say much except the distance from institutions and elected officials,” she continues to AFP.

• The presidential election is not a local election

In addition to the turnout, which will be higher in 2022, the presidential election is above all a national election. The stakes, but also the springs of an accession to the second round and a victory are not the same as for the regional ones.

Thus, the losers of 2021 will perhaps be the winners of 2022. The Republic on the march and the National Gathering have failed the regional ones: the presidential party has not weighed on any ballot, except in Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur where an alliance had been forged in the first round with Renaud Muselier (Les Républicains). He was eliminated even before the second round in three regions and totaled less than 7% of the vote on Sunday, June 27, across the country. As for the RN, it did not win any region and was in a strong position only in Paca.

>> To read: Regional 2021: reelected, Renaud Muselier deprives the far right of a victory in Paca

However, do we imagine Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen relegated to the rank of supporting roles in the future race to the Elysee? On the contrary, the head of state and the declared candidate of the RN should lead the dance. The political scientist Jérôme Sainte-Marie (PollingVox) indeed sees two “perpendicular logics” which “assert themselves”: the “old right-left cleavage” still omnipresent locally, at regional as well as municipal, and the “new national cleavage” between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, who dominated 2017 and the Europeans of 2019.

In addition, the presidential election is a ballot that relies much more on personalization than the regional ones. And in this little game, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, whose party, La France insoumise, has rather remained behind the campaign which has just ended, will try to pull out of the game. As he had done in 2017 .

• Nothing is played yet on the right

If the regional have allowed the right to smile and regain confidence, the reasons mentioned above call for caution. Not only is the right in no way guaranteed to appear in the second round of the presidential election, but its self-proclaimed candidate, Xavier Bertrand, is not at all guaranteed to be the standard bearer of this political family in six months.

For Chloé Morin, the ex-LR Xavier Bertrand “lays the foundations for an interesting story” because “he triumphs against the RN” in a region “where there was a real risk”. But if his re-election in Hauts-de-France was “a necessary condition”, it “is not yet sufficient”.

>> To read: Regional 2021: on the right, a distance game between Bertrand, Pécresse and Wauquiez

Xavier Bertrand called on Monday morning the re-elected president of Île-de-France, Valérie Pécresse (Libres !, ex-LR), and her counterpart in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Laurent Wauquiez (LR), to form “a beautiful team “with him for 2022. Response from Valérie Pécresse in the wake:” There is no providential man today “,” for me, everything begins “. As for Laurent Wauquiez, he refuses “these kinds of speed racing where barely elected, we move on.”

That’s good news: LR boss Christian Jacob plans to determine who will be the right-wing candidate in November. Even if Xavier Bertrand proclaims at will that he will be, whatever happens, a presidential candidate, he also knows very well that he will not be able to campaign without the financial and human machine that LR represents.

• The left still in the dark

A part of the left hoped that the regional ones would make it possible to determine which formation could take the leadership in view of the presidential election. Sunday evening, the Socialist Party (PS) as Europe Écologie-Les Verts (EELV) claimed this status, while La France insoumise, whose figurehead Jean-Luc Mélenchon has already declared his candidacy for 2022, had voluntarily put himself out of play in this ballot.

Invited in the media to deliver his analysis of the second round, the First Secretary of the PS, Olivier Faure, did not mince his words. “The reality is that when the deal comes true [entre écologistes et socialistes, NDLR], there is a glass ceiling, or even a green ceiling, which means that the Socialists are today the most credible to lead these rallies, “he said.

For his part, the boss of EELV, Julien Bayou, presented Sunday evening ecology as “the only force in dynamics”. His predecessor, David Cormand, for his part responded on Monday morning to Olivier Faure’s attacks: “The regions where the Socialists let us lead were very hard to find, against the right and the far right,” insisted the MEP to AFP. “And if we did not win, it is because it is on the side of the PS that it collapsed”, he added, attributing the socialist successes to the “outgoing bonus” which has benefited also to the right.

Back to square one, therefore, for the PS and EELV. The common candidacy of the non-Melenchonist left is not for now.