“Today terrorism is post-Isis, much more dangerous”, because “it is less easy to monitor, and therefore to counter”, a “social phenomenon that is always on the rise, whose capacities are growing”, in a historical period in which “the hot area “is the” enlarged Mediterranean “. Claudio Bertolotti, expert on the Middle East and North Africa, radicalization and terrorism of ISPI, as well as director of Start InSight, starts from these premises, on the day of the plenary ministerial of the global anti-Isis Coalition co-chaired in Rome by Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio and the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken. “The Islamic State – highlights Bertolotti in an interview with Adnkronos – renounced its territorial nature well before the anti-terrorism coalition decreed its military defeat”. “In 2014 – observes – the then self-proclaimed ‘caliph’, Abu Bakr-al Baghdadi announced from Mosul the constitution of the ‘Islamic State’, an national, global reality”. According to various scholars, ISIS was born as a reaction to the American operations launched in Iraq in 2003 and to a policy considered pro-Shiite with the Sunni populations who felt marginalized. According to Bertolotti, who is also executive director of the Observatory on Radicalism and the Counter Terrorism (ReaCT), “calling it again Isis or Daesh shows that this new phase of the war on terror is about to start with an outdated interpretation”, therefore “not adequate”. And today the “hot area” is that of the “enlarged Mediterranean”, with a “close link between organized crime and terrorist organizations”. Bertolotti speaks of “drug and arms trafficking” and the “rich business of irregular immigration which in fact feed a parallel economy, often superior to the economies of the states they pass through”. The thought goes to the “areas of sub-Saharan Africa”, to the “peripheral areas of the countries of North Africa”, to “Libya, in particular”. ‘Islamic State ideology not affected, is consolidated from Afghanistan to Africa’E ‘indispensable, he stresses, “to combat these illicit trafficking” to “help weaken the crime that manages them and the terrorist organizations that have control of certain areas and routes of communication” and that “thanks to the illicit proceeds they are able to acquire more and more consensus by local populations “. People who “rely on these organizations and groups for their own survival”. In recent years, he continues in his analysis, “the anti-terrorism coalition has overthrown the Islamic State in its territorial nature”, but “has not in the least affected it ideology, its capacity for social penetration “and, in particular,” the drive towards emulation “. This “leads, on the one hand, individual subjects to often act in an improvised manner, in the name of the group”, he says, with his thoughts turned to Europe, and “on the other, to form structured armed opposition where states are weaker or absent “, and therefore we speak of” insurrectional phenomenon “and” guerrilla “. From Afghanistan to the Sahel, not only. “The Islamic State – he continues – was not expelled from Iraq and Syria, where it was born and has very deep roots in the peripheral and rural Sunni realities, often marginalized by national governments”. Hence the alarm: “Today it is consolidating more and more in countries in crisis and crisis areas, from Afghanistan to Iraq to Africa”. At the ministerial of the anti-Isis Coalition, “with the support of the United States”, Italy – Di Maio said – proposed the creation of a “specific working group” for Africa and assured that “it will do its own part “for the stability of the continent and the Sahel, defined a” concern “. ‘Military action alone is not enough, changing approaches from the past’ According to Bertolotti, to date “we have not done enough in terms of countering terrorism, understood as a social, political and economic commitment” to address “the primary reasons for the discontent that leads to adhesion to terrorism “. And, he notes, “it is difficult to do more by adopting the same approaches used up to now where a preponderant commitment in military terms is not matched by an equal commitment in reconstruction and assistance”. Because, he repeats, “if it is true that the fight against terrorism also involves incisive military action, this alone is not enough” and “aid to the population and local institutions requires concrete support for the local economy, projects infrastructural, access to the free market “. “Military support must be an effective side dish to all this, it must facilitate economic and social development, guaranteed by security”, continues Bertolotti, who recalls “the unfortunate US retreat of 2012 which opened the doors to the consolidation of al-Qaeda” in the Arab country “and the subsequent expansion of the Islamic State at a regional and then global level”. For the expert, “what has already been done in the past is being repeated in part”. From Iraq to Afghanistan, from Afghanistan to Iraq, “where – he says – the Islamic State strengthened just after, and as a consequence, the military disengagement of the Coalition”. Yet, he notes, “the withdrawal from Afghanistan”, which began in early May, started “with the same dynamics and difficulties with which it left Iraq”, where Italy – as Di Maio announced today – will maintain a ” significant military contingent “in support of the population and local institutions. In Iraq, Bertolotti recalls, “the Islamic State conquered entire cities, disarmed entire departments of the national army and took possession of the tanks and weapons that the United States had left to the national armed forces”, while in Afghanistan today “the Taliban are doing exactly the same thing. ” “In a few months – he concludes – they could decree the collapse of the Afghan armed forces and the fall of the government of Kabul itself”.
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