They said that US Intelligence had not established whether Russian President Vladimir Putin had made the decision to go on the offensive or not, but that he wanted to give himself all possible options, from the partial invasion of the separatist enclave of Donbass to total invasion. At the rate that the Russian military posture continues to strengthen around Ukraine, the master of the Kremlin should have sufficient forces for a full-scale invasion, or 150,000 men, in mid-February, they warned.
Up to 50,000 civilians killed?
If the Russian president chooses the most drastic option, he could surround Kiev, the Ukrainian capital, and overthrow President Volodymyr Zelensky in 48 hours, according to these officials. They warned that the conflict would have a considerable human cost with the risk of causing the death of 25,000 to 50,000 civilians, 5,000 to 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers and 3,000 to 10,000 Russian soldiers. It could also cause an influx of 1 to 5 million refugees, mainly to Poland.
A first contingent of American soldiers arrived in Poland on Saturday, where American President Joe Biden decided to send reinforcements to defend the NATO countries “against any aggression”. Russia denies any hint of invasion, saying it only wants to guarantee its security. Yet, according to US intelligence findings, Russia continues to amass a sizable military base around Ukraine.
AFP
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Two weeks ago, 60 army battalions were positioned in the north, east and south of Ukraine, notably in Crimea annexed by Moscow in 2014. On Friday, there were 80 and 14 others are in transit from the rest of Russia, including Vladivostok in the Russian Far East. Some 1,500 Russian special forces soldiers, the fearsome Spetsnaz, arrived a week ago in the border area of Ukraine, according to these officials.