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Silence before the storm: Strange flight of British planes, transfer of Russian troops to Belarus and withdrawal of diplomats – Topky

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A post from the radar of a government plane from Great Britain appeared on the social network Twitter, which is carrying military equipment on board its C-17, and during its maneuvering through the airspace, Germany was suspiciously avoided. At the same time, it is known that the new German government refuses to support armaments in Ukraine.

Suspicious flight trajectory

According to the portal Novinky.cz German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock even repeated this position at a press conference in Kiev. “Diplomacy is the only way,” she repeated to her Ukrainian counterpart. The UK Defense Journal drew the attention of the German area to the suspicious “avoidance”.

It is still unclear why such a large encirclement took place on the way to Ukraine. The weapons on board the C-17 were confirmed by the British Minister of Defense Ben Wallace. He confirmed on Monday evening that the plane was carrying “light anti-tank weapons” to Ukraine in connection with “Russia’s increasingly threatening behavior”.

The game is also bad weather

In response to media issues, the Federal Armed Forces in Germany said that the Ministry of Defense had allegedly received no request from the British regarding the use of German airspace. However, there are also opinions in the comments below that the C-17 chose this route even for unsatisfactory conditions in the weather over Germany.

However, in addition to Britain, Canada has also promised its support to Ukraine, which has already sent troops to the scene. They are even supposed to be available to the Ukrainian government and are already working on an evacuation plan should Russia decide for a full invasion.

Moscow wants this promise from NATO

According to initial estimates, there are 100,000 Russian soldiers on the Russian border with Ukraine. There are reports that the invasion could begin in the first months of this year. Moscow rejects these and similar considerations and allegedly only demands a promise that Ukraine will never become a member of NATO. NATO refuses to nod to the offer, as it is said that it is up to each state to decide freely on this membership, without any external pressure.

Opportunistic behavior, analyst evaluates

Russia does not yet know whether it will actually invade Ukraine. Rather, it is a “Plan B” in case diplomatic solutions do not develop in the direction the Russians want. This was stated in an interview by Czech analyst Lukáš Dyčka, who works at the Baltic Defense College in Estonia.

“In my opinion, Russia is behaving as a relatively opportunistic actor. This means that Moscow is waiting for the situation to turn out. At the moment, the Russians seem to see the (geopolitical) situation in such a way that the American president (Joe Biden) does not Europe may not be running in the next election and shifting its focus to Asia – China, and the Russians see this as an opportunity to put pressure on the Americans, the North Atlantic Alliance (NATO) and the West, and from their (Russian) point of view. to align the security architecture in Europe to better suit their own interests, “ Dyčka thinks

.

Photo gallery (5)

Source: Getty Images

The analyst thinks that armed conflict is not the preferred option for the Russians at the moment, but according to him they need to create the impression that they are willing to go the military route as well. “Even the Russians don’t really know if they will resort to armed conflict. Rather, armed conflict does not seem to be a completely preferred option from the Russian side’s point of view. I think this is more like Plan B, with (Moscow) insisting more on a diplomatic solution, but if diplomatic solutions do not proceed in the way that the Russians want, they must to be able to provoke armed conflict, “ the Czech analyst continued.

Transfers of Russian troops to Belarus

In the meantime, however, footage from the Belarusian Ministry of Defense has already appeared, which shows that Russian military units have already moved to Belarusian territory on 18 January. According to the server Military this move is said to be related to an exercise to repel “external aggression”.

Silence before the storm: Strange

Photo gallery (5)

Source: Ministry of Defense of Belarus

The Russian Ministry of Defense said that Russian troops were moving to a joint exercise “Union Determination 2022” with Belarus. “The maneuvers are taking place against the background of the deteriorating military-political situation in the world, growing tensions in Europe, including near the western and southern borders of the Republic of Belarus,” said the Russian Ministry of Defense.

Russian troops are said to remain in Belarus at least until March. The training will officially take place in two stages. The first will last until February 9, the second – from February 10 to 20.

Silence before the storm: Strange

Photo gallery (5)

Source: Ministry of Defense of Belarus

Silence before the storm: Strange

Photo gallery (5)

Source: Ministry of Defense of Belarus

The Russians have already withdrawn their diplomats

Earlier this year, Russia reduced the number of people in its diplomatic missions in Ukraine. The New York Times (NYT) wrote on Tuesday that it was “a possible key to further action” by Russian President Vladimir Putin in the crisis over Ukraine.

According to the NYT, the measure could be partly propaganda, partly a preparation for a conflict with Ukraine, or even a trick, said unnamed representatives of Ukraine and the United States, who also noted that it could be all three options at the same time.

The first deportation took place on January 5, when a group of 18 people – mostly children and wives of Russian diplomats – boarded a bus and set out on a 15-hour trip to Moscow.

While the US still believes Putin is undecided on his next move, Kiev is considering what the attack might look like if it occurs. In Ukraine, they admit that the attack could take the form of a total invasion. Another possibility is that Russia could launch a cyber attack on Ukraine’s energy network – much larger than those of 2015 and 2016 – combined with a military escalation in eastern Ukraine, where Russia-backed separatist forces continue to operate.

Silence before the storm: A strange flight of British planes, the transfer of Russian troops to Belarus and the withdrawal of diplomats

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