Vaccination coverage, number of deaths and GDP: the very strong impact of the health pass – Le Monde

How to measure the concrete impact of the establishment of the health pass? Admittedly, the vaccination rate of the French population has increased from 53.8%, in mid-July 2021, to now 79.5% of people who have received at least one dose of vaccine, but how much of this impressive increase can be directly attributed to this new everyday tool? Moreover, is this impact only health or have other aspects of society been able to benefit from this measure, criticized in particular for its draconian aspect?

A study conducted by a dozen researchers looked at these different questions and shows the very strong impact of the health pass on vaccination adherence, the number of hospitalizations and deaths linked to Covid-19, as well as on the product. gross domestic (GDP).

This study, to be published on Tuesday January 18 on the website of the Economic Analysis Council (CAE), a service attached to Matignon but bringing together independent academics, was notably co-written by the mathematician Miquel Oliu-Barton (Paris-Dauphine University, Esade Center for Economic Policy in Barcelona) and economist Bary Pradelski (CNRS, Oxford-Man Institute of Quantitative Finance) with epidemiologist and member of the scientific council Arnaud Fontanet and economists Philippe Aghion (Collège de France) and Patrick Artus (Natixis ). It is based on a comparative study of three countries that adopted systems equivalent to the health pass during the summer of 2021: France, Germany and Italy.

Heterogeneous results

To assess the impact of the past, the authors built models estimating what the vaccination dynamic would have been without these devices called green pass in Italy or “2G” rule in Germany for geimpft (vaccinated) or genesen (healed).

If the results are heterogeneous depending on the country, they are, in all cases, important: in a little less than six months, these passes have made it possible to increase the vaccination rate by thirteen points in France, by 9.7 points in Italy and 6.2 points in Germany. According to the models, vaccination coverage would indeed have been, without these devices, 65%, 70% and 67% of the respective populations of these countries. An important point for the saturation of hospital services, this increase in membership thanks to the pass is also observed among the over 60s; France notably gained 8.9 points of coverage for this population and Italy, 4.4 points.

“We did not necessarily expect such a significant impact from the past, based on the studies published before the announcements. On the other hand, a survey by Public Health France suggested a major effect of the health pass in the decision of the French to be vaccinated., emphasizes Miquel Oliu-Barton.

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