The forecast for electricity tariffs has been revised significantly upwards. (illustration) (Pixabay / DavidReed)
The government wanted to limit the increase in electricity to 4% on February 1, 2022. Faced with the difficulty of simply implementing such a measure, the Ministry of the Economy is looking for solutions. According to calculations, the increase could ultimately reach between 12.8 and 20%.
The promise to limit the increase in the price of electricity to 4% on February 1, 2022 may not be kept. A confidential document drafted by the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) before hearings on Tuesday January 11 with the various players in the sector, including EDF, shows that
forecasts have unfortunately been widely raised, reveals
Lowering TICFE will not be enough
We should therefore no longer expect a 15% but a 30 to 40% increase in electricity prices next month. A huge difference that will be very difficult to bridge. The forecasts were confirmed by the Minister of the Economy Bruno Le Maire on Monday January 10 on
, which cited an increase of between 38 and 40%.
Limiting the increase to 4% seems insurmountable and lowering the internal tax on final electricity consumption (TICFE) as promised by Prime Minister Jean Castex in September 2021 will not be enough. According to Bercy, this measure alone will cover
“Up to 16 or 17% increase in the price of electricity”
and only 20% according to CRE calculations.
A necessary gesture on the part of EDF
By changing the way the prices are calculated, the increase can be smaller. CRE therefore proposes to exclude from the calculation the few days in December when the prices were the highest. This leads to a 12.6% increase in electricity prices.
To cut back on the remaining 8% and achieve the objective, EDF would have to agree to increase the volume of electricity from nuclear power that it has the legal obligation to sell to its competitors by slashing prices. The energy company would then have to sell the electricity for 42 € / MWh against 250 to 300 € currently. And still it is necessary that the suppliers pass on this commercial gesture on the invoice of the French people.