All the 2022 presidential polls in our compiler | The HuffPost – The HuffPost

The HuffPost

VOTE – A president in the campaign, but still not officially a candidate. Exactly three months away from the first round of the presidential election, and if we leave aside the possible entry into play of Christiane Taubira, there is one unknown: know when Emmanuel Macron will really enter the race for his succession. If there is little doubt that he will be on the starting line on April 10, the current head of state retains a malicious pleasure in prolonging the suspense.

And it works out pretty well for him. Finally until now. Because we saw at the end of last week in the YouGov survey for The HuffPost that the French made him pay cash for his release on the unvaccinated people he wants to “piss off”. Will that end up translating into voting intentions as well? It is all the less certain that it enjoys a base of faithful which does not seem to move for five years.

As can be seen in our poll compiler, Emmanuel Macron indeed benefits from a stability of around 24%, his first round score in 2017. At the beginning of January, it is even – in our tool – at 25.3% on average, that is to say its highest total. high since the end of October.

The rest of our analysis under the infographic.

If Emmanuel Macron is hooked very firmly to first place, second is much more contested. At one quarter of the vote, two women stand out. With a crossover from our last article in December.

Marine Le Pen redoubles Valérie Pécresse

If had capitalized on his victory at the LR Congress to make a leap and win on the poster, Valérie Pécresse is now weakening. From 17.4% it rose to 16.1% on average. And as at the same time Marine Le Pen (who had won in the last quarter of 2021) finds color, the situation is reversed. With 16.6%, the president of the RN regains the second place which was hers in 2017 and to which she seemed promised at the end of the summer.

It was at a time when Eric Zemmour had not yet appeared. The former journalist of the Figaro and CNews continues to level off (12.5%, its worst average since the end of September) but with its positioning on the far right, it still prevents Marine Le Pen from reaching the 20% mark. So much for the right and the far right.

When will there be a dynamic for the left?

And the left? The analysis is hopelessly the same since we released this compiler. Divided as it is, it can not weigh in the competition to access the second round of the presidential election. January was to be announced as the month of thinning but on Monday 10th, it is impossible to say who will be on the starting line.

Stuck at less than 5%, Anne Hidalgo had tried a game of poker by claiming a primary. Result: no other candidate apart from Arnaud Montebourg (and Christiane Taubira who was invited to everyone’s surprise) has deigned to say yes. And in the polls, no improvement is visible: the mayor of Paris remains below 4%.

In front of her, Yannick Jadot did well double his score. But with 7.3% on average, the environmental candidate struggles to seduce and he clings to the idea that his candidacy will take off when the campaign really begins. This is also what Jean-Luc Mélenchon hopes, who continues to lead the race on this side of the political spectrum. But the leader of rebellious France who promises an unprecedented meeting this Sunday is not experiencing a meteoric breakthrough either. With 9.4% on average, it is about 3 points below its score in January 2017.

The poll compiler of the HuffPost, how it works?

Each new poll of voting intentions for the presidential election is taken into account in our compiler. This then calculates the new average of the scores achieved by each candidate (who has already obtained more than 5% on several occasions) over the last five surveys published. The more recent the survey, the greater its weight in this average. Click here to download a list of all polls used for this article. Note that Christiane Taubira does not yet appear in our compiler because too few surveys were carried out with her application.

See also on The HuffPost: In their wishes for 2022, the candidates all have their way of saying goodbye to Macron