One year after the Capitol invasion, Donald Trump prepares his return – The HuffPost

UNITED STATES – This date, January 6, will not be forgotten by Americans. A year to the day after the capitol attack, the injury is still fresh for Democrats. “January 6, 2021 will forever remain this indelible stain in the history of our American democracy,” said Chuck Schumer, the leader of the Democrats in this institution, grimly. They tried to shake our democracy. Thank goodness they failed ”. To mark this traumatic event, a moment of commemoration has been prepared at Congress, during which Joe Biden is due to speak on Thursday.

It was also expected that Donald Trump, accused of having incited his supporters to “walk on the Capitol”, speak at a press conference to (re) give his side of the story and put a layer on the alleged “Theft” of the presidential election by the Democrats. He finally gave up speaking for the anniversary date, without giving the reasons, but assures that he will speak on January 15 at a meeting in Arizona.

For nearly a year, Donald Trump has been discreet on the media scene. Seen from France, his name only appears in the media in the context of investigations targeting him. In particular the one on the assault on the Capitol with the battle of the former president for do not send to the parliamentary committee documents on this famous day. More recently, on January 3, the New York State prosecutor, who is investigating possible tax fraud by the Trump Organization, announced that she wanted to hear the former president and his children Ivanka and Donald Junior.

A cornered and speechless Donald Trump? This perception is neither entirely French nor linked to distance. It has faded well in recent months, but only on the surface and the better to come back, believe Marie-Christine Bonzom and Nicole Bacharan, two political scientists specializing in the United States, interviewed by The HuffPost. And 2022 should be the year of his comeback.

The “midterms”, the crucial deadline for Trump

It must be said that this year will be crucial for the rest of the political future of the United States. In November, the midterm elections (the ‘midterms’). This first major election since Joe Biden took office will look like a referendum on the first half of his term. A great way for Donald Trump to take the temperature.

“Trump’s project is to come back for the ‘midterms’, he will be able to assess the political state of mind of his country and depending on what will result, he will relaunch in the race for 2024”, Nicole analyzes Bacharan, author of the novel The great days that changed America (Perrin editions).

And the billionaire does not hide his desire to run for the next presidential election. At the beginning of November he explained that he would “probably” announce his decision to run in the White House after the midterm elections and hinted that his choice would make “a lot of people happy”.

Anyway, for the moment, the situation seems rather favorable. President Biden and his vice-president are at their lowest in the polls and are struggling to convince Americans of their effectiveness. November 18, Washington postannounced that Kamala Harris was the least popular vice president, at this stage of the mandate, of the last fifty years. According to a Suffolk University survey for USA Today published on Jan. 3, Joe Biden ended 2021 with a “disastrous approval rating” of 40%. “Biden and Harris are in limbo. The economy, inflation, the fight against Covid, the migration crisis with Mexico and especially the fiasco in Afghanistan… All of this has weakened their reputation, ”explains Marie-Christine Bonzom.

A disenchantment that has already been reflected in the polls on November 3 with President Biden’s first major setback during the election of the Republican candidate for governor of Virginia. “It was a failure, and even if the Democrats then won New Jersey, they did it by a hair’s breadth, and this is another symbolic failure, because this state is historically democratic”, notes Marie- Christine Bonzom. What to encourage Trump in his desire to regain the throne.

Trump to take revenge on social media

To do this, the former president will have to regain his voice. If for a year the world was able to escape its daily bursts of inflammatory tweets, it is above all following its ban on social networks. Banned for life from Twitter account, and for at least two years on Facebook, Donald Trump must however make his comeback on the media scene thanks to its own social network.

Entitled “Social Truth”, the future platform was presented by the former president as an alternative to the social networks which banned him for inciting his supporters to violence before the assault on the Capitol. Currently available for pre-order on the App Store, it should theoretically be launched in the first quarter of 2022.

And what about his ban if the billionaire officially presents himself? Even if, according to Nicole Bacharan, it will be very uncomfortable for Twitter to maintain the ban against a presidential candidate, the platform assured during its decision-making in February 2021 that there would not go back. For Facebook, the ban is supposed to last at least 2 years and could therefore be lifted from January 2023.

Trump, in cult of personality and a game of chess

While waiting for the launch of his platform and the next November deadline, Donald Trump will not stay behind. Moreover, in reality it never was, according to Marie-Christine Bonzom. “He may have faded from media life, but it was to take care of politics better. In this area is very active. He positions himself as a great detractor of his successor, he takes the posture of the candidate and it is quite unprecedented, ”she notes.

Also, even if he does not give an interview to the Democratic media, Trump remained very present in the States, during the local elections. “He tries to place people of his own all over the place, like pawns on a chessboard. It thus ensures their support, maintains a presence within the Republican Party and maintains contact with its base: it is preparing for 2024 ”, analyzes the political scientist.

A strategy that could work, even after the fiasco of January 6 at the Capitol. Because many are those who persist in believing that the presidential election was “stolen” by the Democrats and that the legitimate president is Donald Trump. This is the message that the latter has tirelessly hammered out since his defeat. In addition, the billionaire is the object of a cult of personality on the part of his followers. “Beyond having voted for the Republican Party, many voted for Donald Trump first and will not want any other candidate. Their loyalty goes first to him, then to the party ”, explains Nicole Bacharan. According to a study by Pew Research Center published on October 6, two-thirds of supporters want the former president to play an active political role in the coming years (+ 10% since January 2021) and among them, 44% hope for a new candidacy.

So even though some Republicans may have turned their backs on him after January 6, many have and will turn their jackets to support him and hope for his favors. “Many elected officials hate Trump, but they are in a political marriage, so they will support him,” summarizes the political scientist.

What if “Trumpism” ignites, but without Trump?

If the path seems set for a big comeback for the business mogul, the tide could turn. The defeat of the Democrats in Virginia certainly dealt them a big blow, but it also created an unprecedented and not very reassuring situation for the former president. She demonstrated that “Trumpism” without Trump is now possible.

When the Republican millionaire Glenn Youngkin won the ballot, Donald Trump immediately cracked a statement: “I would like to thank my supporters for coming out in numbers to vote for Glenn Youngkin,” he applauded. “Without you, he was never going to win”. Yet it is not so certain. Because, during his campaign, the candidate of Virginia tried to keep the former president at a safe distance. And clinched the victory by far surpassing Trump’s 2020 scores in residential suburbs, especially among independent voters and women.

Glenn Youngkin’s victory in Virginia therefore serves as an instruction manual for Republicans: it is necessary to take up the codes, the favorite themes of the Republican billionaire, while deviating from his most outrageous positions which frightened the moderates. Nicole Bacharan does not exclude that with time the “Trump effect is dulling” and this even before 2024.

Finally, if this is not the case, other factors must be taken into account before seeing Donald Trump again in the White House: his health (which as a Covid pandemic is not immune to a shock), his age (he will be 78 in 2024) and the outcome of the trials in which he is targeted.

Also to see on The HuffPost: Joe Biden candidate in 2024? He is even more motivated by Donald Trump