One year after the assault on Capitol Hill, Donald Trump wants to avenge “his stolen victory”

One year ago to the day, on January 6, 2021, as American elected officials gathered to certify the victory of Joe Biden in the presidential election, hundreds of Donald Trump supporters forced their way into the Capitol, making five dead. Immediately, criticism flared from all sides, including the ranks of the outgoing president, held responsible for this unprecedented attack on one of the symbols of democracy.

A few days later, on January 20, when it was time to officially cede his place in the White House to Joe Biden and retire to Florida, with near indifference, Donald Trump’s political career seemed to come to an end. Yet a year later, the exuberant millionaire is still well and truly talked about. From his residence in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, he even seems to be preparing from a distance for the presidential election of 2024, and before that the midterm elections scheduled for November 2022.

“Trump is already a candidate”

“The reality is that Trump is already a candidate for 2024”, analysis with France 24 Nicole Bacharan, political scientist specializing in the United States and author of the book “The Great Days That Changed America” ​​(Perrin editions ). “Obviously a lot can happen by then, but the former president is determined to run and be elected.”

Despite the debacle of last January, the billionaire did not stay long in the shadows. “He has been particularly active since the summer of 2021 in the public sphere”, details Tamara Boussac, historian specializing in the United States, contacted by France 24. “He is increasing the number of meetings – these big meetings that he adores and in which he excels – and it works very well. His electoral base is always lively and responsive. “

At each of these meetings, in front of a crowd wearing red caps and sometimes “Trump 2024” t-shirts, he recites the same subjects. He systematically castigates “Biden’s maladministration”, in particular his management of the Covid-19 crisis and the migration issue. But above all, he keeps fueling his theory of “Stop the Steal”, the thesis that his victory in the 2020 presidential election was stolen from him by the Democratic Party. “We have won the election twice, and it is possible that we will have to win it a third time,” he likes to repeat to his supporters.

“Stop the Steal”, a unifying theme

“These allegations have become one of the flagship elements of Donald Trump’s political rhetoric and a unifying theme with his supporters,” Tamara Boussac analyzes. “This speech also allows him to downplay the events of January 6 and relegate them to the background; the real fault is not to have attacked the Capitol, but that the Democrats are guilty of electoral fraud.”

Thus, Tuesday, by announcing the cancellation of his press conference organized on the occasion of the anniversary of the assault on the Capitol, he again blasted “the fraud” of the last election, denouncing “the crime of century”.

“More than any political ambition, it is his only goal: to take revenge on Joe Biden”, assures Nicole Bacharan. “He wants to be re-elected above all to make it recognized that this victory was his”.

And among the voters of the Grand Old Party (GOP), the support for this thesis of a stolen election is final. According to a study by Amherst University, Massachusetts, published on December 28, 70% of them believe that Joe Biden was not legitimately elected to the White House.

The mid-terms of 2022, a “referendum” for Trump

Behind the scenes too, Donald Trump is active. “When he is not in a meeting, he multiplies the meetings at home, in Florida, with members of the Republican Party to appease those who support him,” explains Tamara Boussac.

Because with his solid electoral base, even deprived of his Twitter account, the former president is still very influential within the party. On the horizon of the midterm elections of November 2022, the candidates of each state are scrambling to receive their support.

“Despite everything, his position is withering. In the ranks of the party, some would like to move on and leave Trump to the past,” said Nicole Bacharan. Among them, for example, the leader of the Republicans in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, who notably urged Donald Trump to stay out of the ballot “to talk about the future, and no longer about the past.”

“These mid-terms thus take on the appearance of a referendum in support of the former president with on one side the dubbed colt and on the other more moderate candidates,” she adds. “In this, the mid-term elections will be decisive in assessing the level of support that Donald Trump will enjoy with a view to the presidential election”, abounds Tamara Broussac.

The integrity of the elections in question

At the same time, Donald Trump is working on another project. For more than a year, the GOP has been working to radically transform the electoral apparatus at the local level. The stated objective: “Securing the electoral process”.

“There have been bills in 41 states,” explains Nicole Bacharan. It is sometimes proposed to restrict access to postal voting, or even to limit the number of polling stations, in particular in certain democratic strongholds where ethnic minorities often live.

“The Republicans are also trying to take control of the results of the vote,” denounces the specialist. “Until then, the results had been verified by a member of both parties who promised to remain impartial. But numerous procedures have been initiated to reserve this role for a single Republican representative.” According to the specialist, these measures could thus bring down certain safeguards that had prevented Joe Biden’s victory from being challenged in 2020.

A question also remains unanswered: can Donald Trump’s political ambitions be thwarted by the investigation into the assault on Capitol Hill? “There is little chance”, slice Nicole Bacharan. And to ironize: “When you have money and good lawyers, the capacity to obstruct justice is dizzying.”

“In any case, the commission of inquiry does not have the capacity to prosecute him criminally. It takes care of hearing witnesses, examining documents and social networks, but it can only give an opinion “, recalls the specialist from the United States. “The Department of Justice will not be obligated to follow this recommendation at all.”

“We must also not kid ourselves. If the Republicans win in the midterm elections and win a majority in Congress, there is a good chance that the investigation will be reduced to heartache,” said she does.