Purchasing power: what awaits the French in 2022 – Les Échos

At the end of the year, this is the first question the French are asking themselves: how will their purchasing power evolve next year? In recent days, several institutions have outlined a trajectory: according to INSEE, after accelerating this year, purchasing power per household should decrease by 0.5% in the first semester. This does not augur its annual evolution, specifies the statistics institute. For its part, the Banque de France estimated, in its three-year forecasts, that it would continue to progress next year (+ 0.6% expected), but less quickly than in 2021 (+ 1.7% ).

In addition to reasoning on different periods, the two institutes do not count in the same way inflation allowance of 100 euros which will be paid to 38 million French people. INSEE fully integrated it into 2021 revenues, resulting in a drop in purchasing power in the first quarter. The central bank, on the other hand, distributed it over 2021 and early 2022, which smooths the effects.

If it is undoubtedly difficult for the French to find themselves in these quibbles of experts, the concern, it, is there vis-a-vis the persistent inflationary tensions. It is even their main concern at three months of the presidential . The rise in consumer prices (+ 3.4% in November over one year calculated by the HICP index) is undermining their purchasing power.

Experts certainly anticipate a decline in energy inflation. But for the moment, “there is no improvement in sight for the coming quarter” warned this Thursday, in a tweet, the president of Medef, Geoffroy Roux de Bézieux, judging that “in this context, energy must become the number 1 priority of the French presidency of the European Union ”.

Field surveys also show that a growing number of manufacturers want to pass on a share of the cost increases they are subjected to in their selling prices.

Core inflation (excluding energy and food) should therefore be at a higher level next year than it was before the pandemic, according to the Central Bank.

The will they follow ? The favorable labor market situation prompts both institutions to think so. The revaluation of the minimum wage , 2.2% in October then 0.9% next January, – gives the “the”. Already, branch negotiations are starting to lead to revaluation of salary scales . And in its projections, the Banque de France forecasts “a clear increase in wages over time”. She might be ” of the order of 3% per year ”, indicated to“ Echos ”François Villeroy de Galhau, its governor .

Patrick Artus, chief economist at Natixis, however, puts it down: “This will not be true everywhere. In sectors in difficulty such as the automobile or aeronautics, there will be no wage increases, ”he objected.

Precautionary savings

Moreover, what will happen to the self-employed? The “whatever the cost” had enabled them to limit the loss of standard of living. As for retirees, the executive announced a 1.1% increase in basic retirement pensions on 1^er next January, which does not cover the inflation suffered.

For now, the French who have amassed colossal additional savings – 170 billion euros at the end of October according to the Banque de France – maintain a high level of precautionary savings . According to INSEE, their savings rate is still higher than its pre-crisis level next year at mid-year. Concerned about the French woolen stockings, the executive has promised to revalue the pay rate of the Livret A in February , their preferred placement.