No, there were not 40 patients in 1 week per 100,000 inhabitants in France – Fact & Furious

This statement has been widely relayed on social networks. HERE, HERE, HERE or HERE. The researcher’s figures are incomplete and represent only part of the data on COVID-19.

Laurent Toubiana’s figures

Its figures come from Sentinel network. A research and health monitoring network based on the observation of patients with acute respiratory infection (ARI) seen by a general practitioner or pediatrician. It is made up of 1314 liberal general practitioners (i.e. 2.1% of liberal general practitioners in metropolitan France) and 116 liberal pediatricians (i.e. 4.3% of liberal pediatricians in metropolitan France).

Data from the Sentinelles network are integrated into the overall national surveillance coordinated by Public Health France. In any case, the network identifies data relating to COVID-19 in hospitals or in nursing homes. The CheckNews service of Liberation has already addressed the subject in an article HERE.

In his last report, that of week 50, the Sentinel network did note 39 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Which represents 25,509 new cases of COVID-19 having consulted a general practitioner (with an IRA).

But this report does not take into account other data, such as hospital data.

Public Health France figures

The figures from Public Health France on new cases of COVID-19 (and which include those from the Sentinel network) are in fact much larger than what researcher Laurent Toubiana claims.

As of 23.12.2021, 91,608 new cases of COVID-19 have been recorded in the last 24 hours and 370,426 in 1 week. (Secondary source). That is to say an incidence rate of more than 560 per 100,000 inhabitants. However, these figures do not indicate the number of patients suffering fromacute respiratory infection. However, they are still considered “covid case“. Very far from the 40 patients per 100,000 inhabitants announced by the researcher and that the Sentinel network also considers as a “covid case”.

In addition, a recent JAMA Network study reveals that 59.5% of covid cases are symptomatic (therefore sick). Reported to covid cases in France over 1 week, this would represent approximately more than 220,000 symptomatic cases. Although the study is difficult to transpose, Liberation noted in December that in week 47, from 22 to 28 November, there were nearly 30,000 new cases per day, according to SPF, or 208,631 contaminations over the week, of which about half were symptomatic (sick).

Finally, the hospitalization rate is very uneven depending on the region:

At the time of this article’s publication, the CNEWS post is still live.

Fact-Check

Affirmation : There were 40 patients in 1 week per 100,000 inhabitants in France

Verdict : False. This figure is incomplete and represents only a part of the statistics relating to COVID-19.

Article modified on 12.24.2021 at 9:02 am: Addition of the JAMA Network study and the Libé article