War with Ukraine would be very costly for Russia – SME.sk

KIEV / MOSCOW. Moscow has many more troops than Kiev, but a possible military resistance by the Ukrainians would mean great losses for Russia in the event of a real military invasion.

It was written on Tuesday by the Reuters agency, which prepared an analysis of the consequences of a possible military conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

“Western military analysts say the Ukrainian army is better trained and equipped than in 2014, when Russia occupied the Crimean peninsula ‘virtually without a fight.’ In addition, it is highly motivated to defend its country,” Reuters reports.

The agency therefore considers it highly unlikely that Russia is considering a direct conquest of all of Ukraine.

“I do not believe that the Russians have the ability to completely control the whole of Ukraine, nor do I think they would,” Ben Hodges, a former commander of the US military in Europe who currently works at the Center for European Policy Analysis, told Reuters.

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According to him, it is a “credible alternative” that Russia would probably want to control the Ukrainian region of Donbas in order to connect the area with the annexed peninsula of Crimea and thus the Black Sea. However, according to Reuters, this goal would also require large losses on the Russian side.

A possible invasion would have high losses

Siemon Wezeman, who works at the International Peace Research Institute in Stockholm, thinks that the level of resistance of the Ukrainian side to any invasion would exceed anything that Russia had faced in previous military operations, such as in Chechnya in the 1990s or during the 1990s. brief war with Georgia in 2008 over a small separatist region of South Ossetia.

“Russia can defeat, say, a large part of Ukraine’s professional forces. However, attacking a country like Ukraine with a population that is clearly against you and where most men have received at least basic military training is difficult. which is ten times larger than Chechnya and thirty times larger than Georgia, “Wezeman said, adding that a possible military invasion would” not be a walk in the rose garden. “

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“As a Russian president, you would have to defend before your own nation why you suffered 10,000 lives in the early days of the conflict. I don’t think Russian society would easily accept something like that,” Wezeman said.

Soldiers gather at the border

Ukraine claims that 92,000 Russian troops have gathered at its borders, and the United States has said that a Russian invasion of up to 175,000 men may come as early as January, Reuters reports.

The Secretary General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Jens Stoltenberg, said on Tuesday that Russia was continuing an “unsubstantiated and unexplained” build-up of troops on the border with Ukraine, despite international calls to de-escalate the situation. The DPA reported.

“Despite international challenges (Russia), it continues to increase troops (at the border with Ukraine). NATO will always respond decisively to any threat, including strengthening our collective defense as needed,” Stoltenberg said after talks with Romanian Prime Minister Nicolae Ciucom, who arrived. to Brussels.

Referring to NATO intelligence sources, Stoltenberg said Russia was continuing to deploy artillery, combat units and tanks near the Ukrainian border.

“We are ready for a meaningful dialogue with Russia. I intend to convene a NATO-Russia Council meeting as soon as possible after the new year. However, any dialogue with Russia must be based on fundamental European security principles and address NATO’s concerns about Russia’s actions,” the Secretary General added. Alliances.

However, Moscow denies threatening its western neighbor and says it can move its troops on its territory if it sees fit. Russia also says it feels threatened by Ukraine’s growing ties to the North Atlantic Alliance, and is demanding security guarantees from the West.