Referendum in New Caledonia: what to remember after the consultation of December 12, 2021 – New Caledonia the 1st – Overseas the 1st

Despite the little apparent suspense, the election evening was again prolonged late into the night, Sunday, December 12, 2021. Beyond 11:30 p.m., and after a particularly solemn address by Emmanuel Macron. Verdict of this new historic day: the big question (“Do you want New Caledonia to achieve full sovereignty and independence?”) Was answered No to 96.5% of the votes cast. And yes at only 3.5%.

Except that the victory is a trompe l’oeil: half of the voters registered on the referendum list did not vote. And if the ballot was not marred by incidents, New Caledonia does not see its political future brightening. We summarize …

Note from a Noumean voter leaving the polling station: “Anyway, we know the result.” Even before the election day, two things seemed to be taken for granted: the victory of the No to independence for the third time, and a strong abstention for the last consultation enshrined in the Noumea Accord. The real unknown was the magnitude of these two phenomena.

After counting, it turns out that the supporters of maintaining in France make an exceptional score, with 96.5% of No ballots (75,765 voters). A No that wins everywhere: nationwide, within each province and in all 33 municipalities.

With a particularly massive score in the South province (96.9%) and in the towns which vote rather No: 97.6% in Nouméa, 96.9% in Dumbéa, 96.55% in Païta, 96.1% in Mont-Dore, 97.1 in Bourail, 95.4% in La Foa. We note in passing the “record” held, in the far north by the small town of Ouégoa (97.98%), followed, in the far southwest, by Boulouparis (97.77%) – without forgetting the 100% of Poya Sud , special case since all the rest of the town is in the North province.

The No exceeds the 60% of votes cast everywhere, even in the independence strongholds. To be honest, his lowest score is 60.87%, and it is at Hienghène. Then come Canala (63.64%) and Belep (66.67%). It reached 95.14% in Touho, 90.2% in Ponérihouen led by the UC-FLNKS group leader at the Pierre-Chanel Tutugoro Congress, 89.7% in Poindimié whose mayor is the leader of Palika Paul Néaoutyine, 87.62% in Ouvéa, 86.7% in Lifou, 81.93% in Houaïlou…

Conversely, the rise of the independence vote between the first and the second referendum disappears from the screens on the evening of the third consultation: after having obtained 43.3% and more than 60,000 votes in 2018, then 46.7% and more than 70,000 ballots in 2020, the Yes collapses. Its voters, dotted this Sunday, are no more than 2,755 (3.51%). Between 2020 and 2021, it’s almost 69,000 less. The gap was only 9,970 voters a year ago, and has risen to over 73,000.

Loyalists could be happy about it. Several non-independence figures have done so. Except that this referendum will remain marred by the low turnout, especially in comparison with the two historic mobilizations of November 4, 2018 (81.01%) and October 4, 2020 (85.69%). This Sunday, December 12, only 43.9% of those registered gave their opinion. Less than one in two LESC voters.

What to distort the cards. In Hienghène, the town of Jean-Marie Tjibaou, voters were… 1.17% to move! Of course, the No to independence wins, but it is only worn by 14 people. In the islands province, 4.5% stake, of which 3.69% in Maré.

In this area, Belep stands out: in the far north archipelago, 0.65% participation! There were six voters out of 930 registered, two for Yes and four for No. We can also mention the participation rate at Canala (1.38%) or Pouébo (1.42%).

Conversely, Poya Sud wins the palm of civic-mindedness by reaching 86.8% of participation. With the usual good pupil Farino, municipality without tribe (85.74% participation). Then comes Nouméa and its 64.16%. Overall, the Noumean agglomeration exceeds 62% participation, well above the Caledonian average.

But anyway, 103,431 registered on the special electoral list for the consultation shunned the ballot box. To put it another way, there were four times more abstainers than in 2020. And among them, there may be loyalists. Tired of waiting for a political agreement that does not come? Demobilized by the apparent lack of stake? Or maybe tired of the referendum tunnel?

From where the result in trompe-l’oeil. The separatists, who appear to be the losers, have won the boycott which did not say its name: their call for non-participation has been heard. And this No which won the day, fell in number of votes: less 5,738 between 2020 and 2021. The tenors of the loyalists provide an explanation among others, that of possible “pressures” and “intimidation” towards the supporters of the No in the polling places where they are in the minority.

It remains to be seen what each other will do with these curious victories which were supposed to complete the Noumea Accord. And now ? In their reactions, the non-separatists and the State took note of the success of the No. Moreover, low turnout is not considered a sufficient reason in itself to invalidate a ballot. The separatists, however, warned that they would contest these results. Especially before the United Nations. They also announced that they would not discuss with the state before the presidential elections in early April.

The current president, he did not fail to deliver his usual post-referendum speech. In a ten-minute statement, Emmanuel Macron said “take note” of the result. This one, he believes, “confirms the wish of the majority of Caledonians” who have “chose to stay French“,”freely. “

“The Noumea Accord is reaching its legal end. The promise of a common destiny has never been so tangible “, said the head of state again. With this sentence: “Tonight, France is more beautiful because New Caledonia has decided to stay there.”

His speech:

The referendum also had the surprise visit of Sébastien Lecornu. The Minister of Overseas Affairs arrived the day before.

© Gédéon Richard / NC the 1st

If we dwell on the highlights of this referendum, one of them could be symbolized by a bottle of hydro-alcoholic gel. It was the necessary step to go to vote: Caledonia is still under the sign of the pandemic, the ballot was subject to a whole health protocol. Extended hours, distance, barrier gestures and compulsory mask – let us quote this Noumean voter led to the exit for wanting to wear one. The presence and damage due to Covid-19 are also at the heart of the request for postponement formulated by the independence camp, and its call for non-participation.

Let us note in passing a progression of invalid and blank ballots. They went from 1.2% in 2020 to almost 3%. Should this be seen as a message from opponents of the health pass and compulsory vaccination? Hard to know… The voting booths jealously guard their secrets.

Another notable element: this election took place in early cyclone warning, since a tropical depression is approaching New Caledonia. This is reminiscent of the first round of municipal elections, in 2020, when Gretel played the spoilsport. This time the intruder was named Ruby but she didn’t cause a big disturbance. Not during the vote, anyway.

The police were particularly visible on this referendum day, here in Noumea.

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© Caroline Moureaux / NCla1ère

The outbursts that some feared did not take place. Sunday morning, the high commission confirmed “an attempted roadblock on an axis of the Isle of Pines”, which resulted “the projection of gendarmes to restore full freedom of movement”. But the day and the evening were not punctuated by a major incident. On the other hand, the police, who received significant human and material reinforcements, seemed omnipresent.

Major General Marietti, commander of the gendarmerie forces for the referendum, also mentioned “two major facts that could be reported on the eve of social networks: a call for the destruction of the ballot boxes, the person is currently in police custody, and another call for destruction by explosive means.”

Finally, throughout the day, we could note the appearance on the roadside, in various places, of banners denouncing the continuation of the referendum. But the flags have remained very discreet, as they have been throughout this referendum campaign. Unlike the previous one.