Covid-19: towards the peak of the fifth wave in the coming days? – LCI

At the dawn of the end of the year holidays, the indicators of the Covid-19 epidemic continue to worry the authorities. For several weeks, the number of daily contaminations has continued to increase, now exceeding the peaks of the third and fourth waves. France has never experienced such a number of cases in 2021. But good news could soon emerge.

On Thursday, December 9, nearly 57,000 people tested positive, an increase of 17% compared to the previous Thursday. A significant increase … but which decreases day by day. The day before, the increase over one week was 24%. At the start of last week, this indicator was even more than 50%. If the trend continues, then the highest level of the fifth wave could be reached in the coming days.

“This is how the arrival of the peak will happen”, explained in recent days to LCI Antoine Flahault, director of the Institute of Global Health in Geneva (Switzerland). “Before its highest level, the curve will round off. This should also be seen in the level of the reproduction rate of the virus”, the famous R closely scrutinized since the start of the pandemic. When this indicator is greater than 1, then the epidemic progresses, and vice versa. When it reaches 1, then the peak is reached.

On this point, the trend also seems favorable. At the end of last week, the R was around 1.3 at the national level, then estimated Professor Flahault. According to him, it is now set at 1.17. This confirms that if the epidemic is still progressing, its increase is less rapid. Enough to suggest a peak around December 15, as epidemiology judged “plausible” at the beginning of the month ? “It is still possible, or within a few days”, answers Professor Flahault.

Guillaume Rozier, founder of CovidTracker and ViteMaDose, even hope that the increase in cases will stop this weekend. “If the evolution continues in the same direction, we could achieve a stabilization of the evolution of positive cases by the end of the week, or at the beginning of next week”, he says on Twitter.

But another question remains: what will happen after the peak? Two scenarios can emerge. The first, the most favorable, would be a gradual and immediate drop in cases. This is what many of our neighbors who have already crossed the peak have experienced, such as Germany or Belgium.

The other scenario, less favorable, will occur if the R remains equal to 1, without decreasing. The number of cases would then stabilize at a very high level. This is particularly what the British know. “In the UK, the R has been around 1 since mid-August”, explains Professor Flahault to LCI. “After their peak, they experienced a plateau that never came back down.”

To avoid it, the director of the Institute of Global Health in Geneva recommends additional restrictions. “Without stronger measures, this is what could happen in France from December 15th”, he assures. During his press conference on Europe organized Thursday at the Elysee Palace, the President of the Republic Emmanuel Macron did not exclude this hypothesis. “We will assess the development at the beginning of next week”, did he declare. “At a time when other pathologies arrive (in the hospital), this will lead, or not, to additional decisions.”