Referendum on independence: why Emmanuel Macron assures us that “France would be less beautiful without the Nouv – franceinfo

When he reuses the same formula last summer in Papeete, this time we are four months away from the crucial third and last self-determination referendum. Jean-François Merle, who followed the negotiation of the Matignon agreements on New Caledonia at the end of the 1980s, remembers “very good of this sentence”. “For me, this is a fairly clear stance in favor of the ‘no’ to independence, analyzes the former adviser to Michel Rocard for overseas. He gives his feeling with this pretty formula. “

“It reminds me of those parents who say the family won’t be the same when the kids leave.”

Jean-François Merle, former adviser to Michel Rocard

to franceinfo

Won: “The words of the Head of State were very reassuring”, will react on franceinfo Sonia Backès, the president of the Caledonian Republicans group in Congress on the island, and opposed to independence. Philippe Gomès, UDI deputy from New Caledonia, was also present in the parterre of elected officials in Nouméa: “What he said, c‘was smart, clever “, assures Franceinfo the founder of the Calédonie ensemble party, which also militates for the “no”.

It is because the Caledonian referendum file is perilous for Emmanuel Macron. In 1988, he was only a college student in Amiens when the Matignon agreements were approved, and he was only a student when the Nouméa agreement was initialed ten years later. But it is he who will have had to organize the three referendums (2018, 2020 and 2021). Above all, fromthen the independence of the New Hebrides, a Franco-British condominium that became Vanuatu, in 1980, he was the first President of the Republic to have to directly manage the exit from a decolonization process, under the watchful eye of the United Nations. “If you ask me if a ‘no’ victory would also do Emmanuel Macron a lot of good on the 12th december, so my answer is yes, slice Bastien Vandendyck, analyst in international relations and specialist in the Pacific and New Caledonia. He would be the one who managed to keep the territory alongside France. It’s not nothing.”

Because the head of state judges that New Caledonia needs France

Bastien Vandendyck turned the sentence of the President of the Republic in all directions. And “to Basically, what he also meant, I think, is that we are dealing with a win-win relationship between the two parties “. In other words, France is lucky to have New Caledonia (we come back to this below), but New Caledonia is also lucky to have France.

And the management of the Covid epidemic is a good example: “What would have happened without France? Well, New Caledonia would have had to pay for its vaccines, pay the doctors who came as reinforcements on the spot, pay for the equipment, notes the archipelago specialist, who divides his time between Nouméa and Paris. The management of the health crisis reminded a large number of Caledonians that if France had not been there, it would have been very, very complicated. “ Séverine Blaise, lecturer in economics at the University of New Caledonia, agrees: “France has indeed been reactive and has deployed substantial resources, which undoubtedly made a positive impression.”

“On the economic level, if certain reforms were made, in particular on the fiscal level, New Caledonia could become much more autonomous on the financial level. To this day, it remains a great dependence on metropolitan transfers.”

Séverine Blaise, lecturer in economics

to franceinfo

Bastien Vandendyck goes even further. “France now allows New Caledonia to avoid all the inconveniences of territories which resemble it an hour or two by plane. “ He quotes Vanuatu, Papua New Guinea, Fiji, the Solomons, “sparsely populated, militarily weak and politically unstable territories”.

Because the “Caillou” has an immense reserve of nickel

Its area of ​​18,600 km2 (the equivalent of Picardy) makes it one of the largest territories in the South Pacific and the second in overseas France after Guyana. New Caledonia has a gigantic exclusive economic zone of 1,450,000 km2. In the Pacific, the “Caillou” is “the only territory with economic and social indicators that come close to Australia and New Zealand, reports The 1st. Its gross domestic product per capita converges towards that of hexagonal France. The rate of coverage of imports by exports is around 50%, while it is less than 10% in all other overseas geographies. “

Valid Séverine Blaise: “Beyond mineral resources, France indeed retains many economic interests in New Caledonia.” At the top of the pile, we find nickel, of which the Caledonian economy is the cradle of the world: this ingredient, which is used to manufacture electric batteries, accounts for 90% of New Caledonia’s exports and represents more than one out of five jobs. “If I had to imagine the situation, I would say that ‘when the nickel is fine, everything is fine’ but ‘when it does not work, it shows everywhere’, summarizes Joël Kasarhérou, a specialist in the Caledonian economy. There is a ripple effect, it supports hundreds of families, and across the country. And yet, this wealth could benefit the population even more if there were better taxation. Right now there is still a redistribution problem. “

Because it is a geopolitically strategic territory

Losing New Caledonia is also for France to give up its presence and influence throughout the South Pacific area.. “New Caledonia has an extremely strategic geographical location, sums up Bastien Vandendyck. It is integrated into the Melanesian arc, it is close to the two regional powers that are Australia and New Zealand, and it has military infrastructure. We must realize that France enjoys an advantage in the region that no other territory can give it. It is therefore in fact a territory that she can hardly do without. “

This is because, since Brexit, France is the last country of the European Union present in the Pacific. Interesting when you take the binoculars to monitor more closely the Sino-American confrontation which is brewing in the waters of the Indo-Pacific. Maintaining a presence in New Caledonia therefore means… continuing to counter Chinese expansion in the region.

Because Beijing appreciates New Caledonia a lot, and not only for its paradisiacal beaches. He has already started to put his nose there. In October 2017, the Chinese Ambassador to France disembarked with his team of advisers for a week-long visit to the site. “I’ll tell you, it was open bar, remembers, still amazed, the UDI deputy Philippe Gomès. They asked us what we needed, for tourism, for our infrastructure. It was enough to say what we wanted… Well, on the other hand, it was on their terms: if we needed a hotel, it had to be built by Chinese companies, and the employees had to be Chinese too. . “ We were then one year away from the first referendum. However, during the stay, “not the slightest question” was not asked on the subject, nor on the question of independence.