The fractures of New Caledonia rekindled on the eve of the last referendum on independence

More than 185,000 Caledonian voters will, on Sunday 12 December, have to answer the question again: “Do you want New Caledonia to achieve full sovereignty and become independent?” This third and final referendum on self-determination takes place against a backdrop of turmoil, due to disagreements between supporters of independence and loyalists.

Among the points of contention is in the first place the date of the poll, which was agreed in June after discussions between loyalists, separatists and representatives of the State in Paris. “The discussions demonstrated that there was a form of urgency to work on the day after. The general interest required this referendum consultation as quickly as possible,” said the Minister of Overseas, Sébastien Lecornu , to justify the choice of this deadline. But the decision does not achieve consensus: while it suits the loyalists who wanted to act as quickly as possible, it does not satisfy the separatists, who would have liked a referendum in September 2022 to take the time to prepare.

Tuesday, the Council of State rejected the request of a collective of citizens to postpone the referendum, considering that the health context did not “impede” the conduct of the ballot.

At the beginning of September, the Covid-19 pandemic struck New Caledonia, which had however been rather spared until then. Containment was decreed and the hospital sector was put to the test. The epidemic wave, which began on September 6, killed 279 people, but it is now in sharp decline, with an incidence rate below 50 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. For the separatists, the pandemic “prevents a fair campaign”. They therefore demand a postponement of the consultation to respect Kanak mourning. This indigenous people – the Kanaks – represents 41% of the population in New Caledonia and corresponds to the original inhabitants of the country, unlike the descendants of the white settlers, the Caldoches. Today, the majority of separatists are Kanaks, but not all Kanaks are separatists. Marginalized for years, especially during colonization, the Kanaks developed a strong cultural identity.

“The time of mourning, in Kanak country, is not that of politics”

“There is a real problem in the cult management of the dead [de la pandémie] that it is necessary to bury according to the usual local rites “in the Kanak culture, explains, on the antenna of France 24, Benoît Trépied, anthropologist, in charge of research within the CNRS.” When someone dies, there are large customary exchanges, donations, important family mobilizations […] As long as these rituals are not practiced, it is extremely difficult [pour les Kanaks] move on and people stay in a withdrawal attitude. The time of mourning in New Caledonia, in the Kanak country, is not that of politics, ”says the researcher from the Institute for Interdisciplinary Research on Social Issues.

In addition, “the Kanaks and Oceanian communities settled in New Caledonia are very marked by the Covid-19 because they are socially the least privileged and have the least access to care”, affirms to France 24 Sarah Mohamed-Gaillard, mistress conference in contemporary history at Inalco and specialist in the history of Oceania.

In this context, the separatist parties declared that “this referendum will be politically illegitimate” and that its result “cannot constitute a basis for discussion”. They therefore called on New Caledonians not to participate in the consultation. They also warned that they would not recognize the result and that they would challenge it before the United Nations.

This “boycott” changes the situation: during the last two referendums, all political parties called for votes. During previous consultations, New Caledonians mobilized strongly: in 2020, for example, the participation rate reached over 85%.

“The future of New Caledonia cannot be decided without the participation of the Kanaks, the first people”, specifies Sarah Mohamed-Gaillard. The teacher-researcher also recalls that this “self-determination referendum is not open to all people living in New Caledonia but to Caledonian citizens, and therefore to people registered on a restricted referendum list”.

Benoît Trépied, for his part, points to “a paradoxical situation” with “a self-determination referendum where the vast majority of Kanaks, who represent the colonized people, do not pronounce on this question of sovereignty, which is a no. – political sense “. Tuesday, Sébastien Lecornu, moreover, called to “participate massively in this election”, shunned by the separatists, because “the results will prevail”, and that “no one owns the votes of each other”.

A future that must pass through dialogue

The third referendum is a decisive step for New Caledonia. He will have to put an end to a political situation that has been in suspense for 40 years and to the process of decolonization of New Caledonia. The third referendum must put an end to the Nouméa agreement, signed on May 5, 1998, ten years after the Matignon agreements, concluded to put an end to the conflict between the loyalists and the separatists. The Noumea agreement made it possible to set up consultations to transfer certain powers from France to New Caledonia. According to the text, “if the answer is still negative [après trois référendums], the political partners will meet to examine the situation thus created “.

During the last two consultations, the “no” had won with 56.67% of the vote in 2018 and 53% of the vote in 2020. But the gap between supporters and opponents of independence sharply narrowed during the second referendum, compared to the first.

Regarding Sunday’s consultation, “if the consensus dynamic, with a global call for all citizens to speak out on this issue, had been maintained under good conditions, […] there would certainly have been a very small difference “between the number of supporters of” no “and” yes “, indicates Benoît Trépied. According to him, this situation would have been” the best way to continue a dialogue and to find a compromise ” .

“The whole stake will be to renew the dialogue from December 13. This dialogue will have to take place between the separatists and the non-separatists but also with the State, because the State is the third partner of the Matignon agreements. and he must arbitrate between the two camps “, abounds Sarah Mohamed-Gaillard.

“The day after the last self-determination consultation, the State, whose role and historical responsibility is, will take over the initiative for dialogue for the 18-month transition period which will then begin,” Emmanuel said. Macron, November 18 before the Congress of Mayors of France. The state published a document “the consequences of yes and no”, intended to be a basis for work. But arguing that it is “a charge against independence”, the Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS), which brings together the separatist parties, rejected this document. Long discussions are still to be expected, and the file is far from closed.