EXCLUSIVE SURVEY: Strong breakthrough by Valérie Pécresse, Emmanuel Macron still in the lead – LCI

Who benefits from this political weekend? Just invested by her Les Républicains party, Valérie Pécresse is already establishing herself as the strong woman, tied with Marine Le Pen and ahead of Eric Zemmour, in the voting intentions in the first round of the presidential election. This is the main lesson of our survey carried out with IFOP-Fiducial for LCI and Le Figaro, between December 4 and 6, with 1,341 people.

With 17% of voting intentions, she progressed by 7 points and caught up with candidate RN Marine Le Pen. The champion of the Republicans now has in her sights the President of the Republic – but not yet a candidate – Emmanuel Macron, credited at 25%. Eric Zemmour, for his part, is behind, with 13% of voting intentions.

Clearly, if the first round of the presidential election took place this Sunday, Valérie Pécresse could claim the second round of the ballot.

As for Marine Le Pen, she meets more votes among women than men, but bites equally well on the wealthiest social classes, graduates and older (12% among CSP +) than popular (11%) and unemployed. (11%). With her image of Parisian, the president of the Île-de-France region, however, appeals more to city-dwellers (19%) than to French people who are furthest from cities (11%). But it retains the largest share of the electorate – 54% – who voted for François Fillon in 2017. The rest is divided between Emmanuel Macron (17%) and Eric Zemmour (22%).

If Valérie Pécresse wins the 1st round, she will nevertheless have to leave the Elysee Palace to its current resident (48% for the candidate LR against 52% for Emmanuel Macron) in the second round.

According to the scenario according to which Marine Le Pen qualified for the 2nd round, she would lose with 44% of the vote against the outgoing President of the Republic, always given the winner. It is almost 10 points more in the event that Eric Zemmour were to cross the first lap. In the final round, the ex-polemicist would collect only 37% of the voting intentions.

Because, another lesson from this poll, Eric Zemmour (Reconquest!) Is losing popularity. Credited 15% of the vote two weeks ago, he gave up two points in this poll carried out between December 4 and 6, that is, until the day after his meeting in Villepinte.

In addition, Anne Hidalgo (PS) continues its fall: from 8.5% of intention of the vote at the beginning of September, it falls to 5% according to this latest poll. With 6% and 9% respectively in the first round, Yannick Jadot (EELV) and Jean-Luc Mélenchon (LFI) are doing better than the candidate PS, but do not increase the weight of the left.

Only Emmanuel Macron, maintains the same momentum, with 25% of the voting intentions. Poll after poll, it consolidates its electoral base in the first round, and is still well ahead of its competitors.