Honduras chooses: why are these presidential elections important for Latin America?

(CNN Spanish) – More than 5 million people are called to vote this Sunday in Honduras in presidential and legislative elections. But what does this mean for Latin America?

Whoever replaces President Juan Orlando Hernández will have to face a tough economic situation, the persistent problem of violence by criminal organizations and growing migratory flows, in the context of the covid-19 pandemic.

It will also have to deal with the relationship with the United States and the recent accusations that would link the current president of Honduras to drug trafficking, all in a context of political violence that has left at least 29 dead since the call for primary elections in 2020, according to the office from the High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet.

“Conditions have been very difficult, due to hostility and confrontation, which will probably manifest themselves on election day,” political analyst and constitutional lawyer Raúl Pineda told CNN. “A climate of fear has been created to reduce people’s participation in elections. “

Why are these elections important outside of Honduras?

“The authorities that have run the government in recent years could be prosecuted during the new government and lose prerogatives and immunities. That is why it is not simply a replacement of authorities, but they will fight desperately to keep in power because it is in power. I stake their freedom and their heritage, “adds Pineda.

There are 15 registered presidential candidates, although three have the best chances of winning: Nasry Asfura, of the ruling National Party; Yani Rosenthal, for the Liberal Party; and Xiomara Castro, from the Libertad y Refundación (Free) Party and wife of former President Manuel Zelaya, whose overthrow in 2009 started an economic, political and social crisis in the country that still continues.

For Pineda, “if the people vote in a reduced margin, the government party will win. If the turnout is high, the opposition will win.”

The analyst told CNN that the United States is the most interested in these elections, outside of Honduras, because it seeks to maintain its influence in Central America. “If the government repeats what happened in 2017, where a business manager arrived and served as an electoral judge, the United States will lose Honduras, “he said.

“And the United States is looking for an ally in Honduras: they are concerned about the Iranian presence in Nicaragua,” he added.

The background to the 2017 elections

Hernández was elected president in 2013 and reelected in 2017, after the Constitutional Chamber of the Supreme Court of Justice of Honduras lifted the veto on reelection.

The controversy did not stop there. The day after the elections, on November 27, 2017, the opposition candidate, Salvador Nasralla, led the preliminary results, with 57.19% scrutinized. But then the record-processing system of the Superior Electoral Tribunal allegedly failed. When it resumed, Hernández took the lead.

Thousands of people protested in the streets, starting a wave of violence and looting that led to a curfew. Then the United States embassy recognized the victory, despite the alleged irregularities – which the Supreme Electoral Court of Honduras did not claim to have found-, partially calming the situation.

Hernández was sworn in as president in January 2018, but since then the political situation has been tense in the country, with numerous protests.

Migration

Honduras is one of the three members of the so-called northern triangle, along with El Salvador and Guatemala.

The largest number of Central American immigrants currently in the United States come from this bloc, which concentrates the most populous countries in Central America, according to the Migration Policy Institute.

The northern triangle is also crossed by the same problem linked to the high levels of violence from organized crime, including homicides, sexual violence, disappearances, forced recruitment into gangs and extortion, as highlighted by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner. United Nations for Refugees (UNHCR) in a report, that contributes to internal displacement and ultimately emigration.

“For the governments of El Salvador and Guatemala these elections are not of much interest, since relations have become highly segmented: El Salvador operates separately and Guatemala has its own problems,” Pineda said. “The integrationist component has fallen into crisis and they are not very interested in who remains, because the relationship cannot be worse now.”

According to 2019 data, there were 746,000 Hondurans living in the country in the United States, or 19.7% of all Central Americans. There were also 1,412,000 Salvadorans (37.3%) and 1,111,000 (29.4%) Guatemalans.

In recent years, the arrival of children without being accompanied by their parents, from these three countries, has grown a lot.

Hondurans in the United States are mainly concentrated on the east and west coasts and in the south of the country. The largest community is in New York City (79,000 people), followed by Miami (71,000), Houston (69,000), Washington (41,000), Los Angeles (38,000) and Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington (24,000), of according to him Migration Policy Institute.

Drug trafficking accusations that reach different governments

President Hernández has been linked to drug trafficking, and candidate Yani Rosenthal said she would extradite him to the United States if he becomes president, although there is no such request at the moment.

Michael Lockard, a federal prosecutor in New York, said in March that, according to the testimony of his witnesses in the trial against the Honduran Geovanny Fuentes Ramírez on charges of drug trafficking and possession of firearms, the president of Honduras was part of a group of drug trafficking that produced, transported, and shipped cocaine to the United States.

Hernández has not been formally charged with any crime, and the connection occurred during the final arguments of the Prosecutor’s Office in the process in the federal court of the Southern District of New York. Fuentes Ramírez was found guilty of the charges against him, although he pleaded not guilty.

Meanwhile, the president of Honduras classified as “false testimonies” and “obvious lies” the testimonies issued by witnesses.

He is not the first Honduran president to be accused of having ties to drug trafficking.

Former President Porfirio Lobo was singled out for accepting bribes from the Los Cachiros cartel in exchange for political favors by the State Department, and both he and four members of his immediate family – his wife and three children – cannot enter the United States after that in July the State Department denied them access in a statement. However, there is no formal accusation or judicial process against former President Lobo or against two of his three children in the United States or Honduras.

In a tweet posted on July 4, Lobo assured that it is false that he received bribes.

Fabio Porfirio Lobo, son of the former president, is also serving a sentence in the United States for participating in activities related to drug trafficking and has pleaded guilty. While Lobo’s wife and former first lady, Rosa Elena Bonilla, was convicted in 2019 in Honduras for misappropriation and fraud, and has pleaded not guilty.

On the other hand, at the beginning of November, former Army captain Santos Rodríguez Orellana and his wife Jennifer Lizzet Bonilla were arrested in Tegucigalpa, whom the authorities are investigating for alleged crimes related to organized crime and drug trafficking, as confirmed in a statement by the Ministry Public of Honduras.

“There is an interesting phenomenon and it is the discourse of the opposition. The last presidents of Honduras have been singled out for ties with drug traffickers, the population has gotten tired and the opposition has said that it is going to confront organized crime,” Pineda said.

The situation in Honduras prior to the elections

Like so many other countries, Honduras has received the blow to the economy caused by the restrictions imposed in the face of the covid-19 pandemic, exacerbated by the delicate internal situation.

According to 2019 data cited by the World Bank, Honduras registered a 48% poverty, with a GDP per capita of about US $ 2,405, ranked among the lowest in Latin America.

Honduras has so far also registered 377,712 cases of coronavirus and 10,401 deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins University. While 39% of the population has received both doses of the vaccine, a percentage lower than the average in both North America (54.3%) and South America (56.1%), according to Our World in Data with data up to November 19.

On September 15, Honduras celebrated its bicentennial with a military parade and cultural events, organized by President Hernández. That same day opposition groups protested in Tegucigalpa after ensuring that the country still lacks independence and that this government has impoverished the population, in the midst of the covid-19 pandemic.

With information from Adeline Neau, Graciela Martínez, Elvin Sandoval, Yilber Vega, Marlon Sorto, Kiarinna Parisi, Kay Guerrero, Ana Melgar, Priscilla Alvarez and Sol Amaya.