Our new Elabe “Opinion 2022” poll, released this Wednesday afternoon, explores the electorate’s voting intentions, in both the first and second rounds, six months before the presidential election. The various scenarios proposed to the panel all deliver the same verdict: Emmanuel Macron is in the lead but Marine Le Pen performs the best operation in this opinion poll. The odds of his rival, Eric Zemmour, are falling.
The dynamics are refined six months before the presidential election. Our Opinion 2022 poll, conducted by Elabe for BFMTV and The Express with our partner SFR, broadcast this Wednesday, explored the voting intentions of the electorate called to vote next April.
It emerges that Emmanuel Macron is still a favorite, dominating the projections of the first and second round, but Marine Le Pen, solid second, heels closer in the estimates for the first round. It would even close the gap in the second. Another good news for the contender of the National Rally: the odds of her rival Eric Zemmour are clearly declining.
Behind them, the aura of the different possible representatives of the right tested does not take off in the eyes of the interviewed panel and the left candidates do not manage to reach the ten point mark.
Le Pen strengthens, Zemmour retreats
In this new opinion poll, Elabe proposed five different scenarios to his interlocutors, for each of the candidates seeking the investiture of the right at the next LR congress on December 4: Xavier Bertrand, Valérie Pécresse, Michel Barnier, Eric Ciotti and Philippe Juvin. The name of Eric Zemmour appeared in the five plans considered.
These projections all showed the same results, with an Emmanuel Macron for whom the voting intentions vary between 25 and 27%, which represents, depending on the case, a stability compared to the previous measure dated November 11 or a discount of two points. Behind him, Marine Le Pen seems refreshed in this hypothetical first round: she is gauged between 20 and 22%, gaining 2 to 4 points. Eric Zemmour gets off somewhat: his score swings between 12 and 15%, between stability compared to the study published two weeks ago and a drop of two points.
The base loaned to Marine Le Pen owes a lot to the 25-34 year olds, of which she currently attracts 30% of the possible votes, a bonus of five points. It is also the first choice of workers of which it collects 40% of the voting intentions and penetrates with rurality, with a measure established at 27%. Emmanuel Macron, for his part, appeals to executives and intermediate professions (28 and 27% respectively) and to those aged 65 and over (27%).
The right does not take off, the left does worse
On the LR side, the current state of forces is hardly brilliant. Xavier Bertrand? 13%, the same level as on November 11. Valérie Pécresse and Michel Barnier? Both estimated at nine points, except that it would be a decrease of two notches for the first and a stagnation for the second compared to the previous survey. Eric Ciotti and Philippe Juvin would only seduce 5% and 3% of the panel respectively.
The left hemisphere is even more affected. Jean-Luc Mélenchon is leading the way but with only 9% of the votes cast, between stability and gaining an additional point. Yannick Jadot is in the same waters (8 to 9%). The socialist candidate Anne Hidalgo does not get out of the difficulties: her measurement hesitates between 4 and 5%, a decline of two points. Communist Fabien Roussel jealously keeps his hypothetical 2% and Arnaud Montebourg does not leave the area ranging from 1 to 3%.
Three more points for Marine Le Pen in the event of a second round
On its way, Elabe invited his public to decide in a fictitious second round the qualified of the first. And Marine Le Pen, still left behind by the outgoing, however reduced the gap. It is approaching three points, to 45%, while Emmanuel Macron, 55%, is back as much.
It should be noted that if 56% (a stable figure) of those polled assured the polling institute that they were sure to vote for the presidential election, and that 23% (down one point) are considering it “seriously “, more than a third of citizens certain of going to the polls next April have also recognized that they are not of their choice and that they can change it.
At this point, volatility is still playing its role of spoilsport to the full, leaving the candidates to hope for a recovery and giving the fortunes of the day a possibility of further collapse.
Sample of 1491 people representative of residents of mainland France aged 18 and over, including 1350 registered on the electoral roll. Interrogation by Internet on November 23 and 24, 2021. The representativeness of the sample was ensured according to the quota method applied to the following variables: sex, age, socio-professional category, region of residence and category of agglomeration. Margin of error between 1.2 and 3.0 percentage points.