Migration crisis: behind the gas threat to the EU, Belarus’ weaknesses

Nothing is going well between Brussels and Minsk. The influx of migrants on the border between Belarus and Poland has ignited the powder. Accused by the EU of instrumentalizing this migratory crisis, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko reacted by threatening, among other things, to suspend the operation of a gas pipeline that supplies the Old Continent. This strategy, which aims to put pressure on the EU, reveals the dependence of Belarus on its Russian neighbor and the loss of power of its regime.

As Europe faces soaring gas prices, Alexander Lukashenko, in power in Belarus since 1994, pulled the chord on Thursday, November 11. “We are heating up Europe and they are threatening to close the border. And what if we cut off the natural gas going there? So I would advise the Polish leaders, the Lithuanians and the other foolish people to think it over. before speaking “, launched the Belarusian president.

Poland, like Lithuania and Latvia, have been overwhelmed by the arrival, for several months, of thousands of migrants at the Belarusian borders. Turned back by Belarusian and Polish border guards, many migrants, including children and women, are stranded in a forest, located on the border, and are trying to resist the cold under alarming conditions.

Westerners, including the United States and the European Union, accuse Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko of bringing in Middle Eastern and African nationals to Minsk, then pushing them across Lithuania’s borders , Latvia and Poland in retaliation for the economic sanctions imposed by the EU on its regime. Faced with the ire of Minsk, Brussels announced new sanctions for next week.

Bluff or real threat?

By brandishing this threat around gas, Alexander Lukashenko suggests that he can, on his own, decide the fate of Europe. But it is Moscow, and not Minsk, which is the European Union’s main supplier of natural gas. According to the 2020 edition of Eurostat’s “The EU in the World” report, Russia accounts for more than 40% of the EU’s annual gas imports, far ahead of Norway (18.5%) and Algeria (11.3%). The EU is therefore a prime customer for Russia, whose economy is, moreover, highly dependent on fossil fuels.

On the other hand, Belarus is “only a transit country”, points out Florent Parmentier, and “unlike Ukraine, for example, Belarus is really dependent on Russian gas”. It passes through its territory via seven gas pipelines. Yamal-Europe, the one mentioned by Alexander Lukashenko in the tensions with Europe, is the most important. It allows Gazprom to deliver gas from the Yamal Peninsula, in the Arctic, to Poland and Germany. In exchange, Minsk gets transit fees.

“In this context, Belarus must not only seek the approval of Russia, because Gazprom has bought the pipeline, but will also be penalized economically by this decision. It is therefore not at all certain that this threat will be carried out. “, affirms to France 24 Alexandra Goujon, lecturer in political science at the University of Burgundy, specialist in Belarus and Ukraine.

>> Read also: Gas crisis in Europe: Russia on all energy fronts

Especially since if Russia supports its Belarusian ally, “it has no reason to pay a high price for the regime’s survival. This is not acceptable for Russia, one of the challenges of which is to do Gazprom [la plus grande compagnie pétrolière du pays] a reliable partner “, comments Florent Parmentier, secretary general of Cevipov (Sciences Po), specialist in European issues, contacted by France 24.

Russian President Vladimir Putin kicked in touch: he called several times for dialogue between the EU and Belarus, said on Saturday that he had “nothing to do” with the orchestration of the current migration crisis and, on the gas issue, promised on Friday that deliveries would continue.

On Thursday, Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya also criticized the relevance of such a threat. “It would be more damaging for him, for Belarus, than for the European Union and I can assume that it is a bluff,” she told AFP in an interview in Berlin.

Indeed, “Belarus is one of the reliable transit countries between Russia and the EU, but it is not the only gas transit route. Gas can come from Ukraine, in particular, and there are the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines “, explains Florent Parmentier.

The current crisis between Europe and Belarus comes at the height of the filling of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, a 10 billion euro project, with a capacity of 55 billion m³ gas and which is accused of increasing European dependence on Moscow. This new gas pipeline should make it possible to double Russian gas deliveries to Germany without going through Ukraine, until then a traditional transit country, at odds with Moscow since 2014. For Florent Parmentier, this controversial gas project is too valuable to the public. eyes of Russia to be sacrificed. “The German economic circles took a lot of responsibility for carrying the Nord Stream 2 project, it is not so that in the end, Gazprom does its own,” he explains.

Dependent on Russia, Minsk cannot suddenly cut off the gas supply either. “If the storage reserves are already full, once the gas is extracted, it must be used up because it is extremely expensive to store it”, specifies the researcher.

The strong man of Minsk wants to reconnect with his people

Although Belarus does not have the power to cut off gas transit to Europe, Alexander Lukashenko hinted that he would take the step to “stay in power and prove to his people that he is threatened”, according to Alexandra Goujon. In August 2020, the strong man of Minsk had, in fact, proclaimed the winner in the presidential election and the opposition had denounced a fraudulent ballot. For weeks, crowds had invaded the streets of several major Belarusian cities to denounce the results, before being put down by the security forces. Since then, the Europeans have stepped up retaliatory measures against Belarus. “The legitimacy of Alexandre Loukachenko has been greatly eroded and public opinion is putting pressure on him,” adds Florent Parmentier.

By threatening Europe to cut off the gas transfer, Alexander Lukashenko is sending a message to the EU. “He wants to show that he has levers and that the EU cannot dictate his conduct,” explains Alexandra Goujon. For Florent Parmentier, Alexandre Loukachenko also wants to destabilize the European Union. “Through immigration, he wanted to show that he could create threats. He wanted to play on the sensitivity of Polish leaders and Polish opinion”, says the researcher, according to whom, this “crisis will last probably several months “.