Covid-19 in Europe: cases are soaring, what questions does the resurgence of the virus pose? – South West

In Europe, Covid-19 contaminations flare up again, to the point that several countries are reinstating restrictions. Specialists hope that the hospitalization curve will not follow the same trend, which will depend primarily on vaccination. Here are the questions that arise.

What is the epidemic situation in Europe?

The number of weekly cases, which started to rise again in early October, is at its highest since the start of the pandemic. During the last seven days, some 2,125,775 cases have been recorded, or 303,682 per day on average, according to official sources. This is 13% more than the previous week. The current increase is driven in particular by five countries, which alone account for more than 50% of the region’s new weekly cases: Russia, the UK, Germany, Turkey and Ukraine. Before that, the week with the most new weekly cases was between November 2 and 8, 2020: 1,988,507 cases in seven days.

Does this increase concern the region as a whole?

“We must distinguish the countries that are facing a kind of wave, from Ireland to the United Kingdom through the Benelux countries, Germany, Austria, Romania and Russia”, details the epidemiologist at the Free University of Brussels (ULB), Yves Coppieters. Among these countries, there are those like the United Kingdom, “where the curve of hospitalizations does not follow that of contaminations thanks to vaccination”, and the countries of Eastern Europe, little vaccinated, where it is. less so. “In countries like Spain and Portugal, extremely well vaccinated, or Italy, which has taken strong measures, the rebound is not yet very visible,” he says.

“France is a bit between two: the resumption of contaminations is real but less strong”, continues the epidemiologist. The European disease agency ECDC ruled on Friday that the situation continued to deteriorate in the EU. Of the 27, she placed Belgium, Poland, the Netherlands, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary and Slovenia in the highest concern category.

What responses from countries?

Most want to push vaccination. France, for example, has just announced that its health pass would be subject to a booster dose for those over 65. But some go further, by re-establishing constraints known at the start of the epidemic. Russia is preparing to reintroduce strict health passes. Norway for its part will resume measures at the national level: thus unvaccinated health workers will have to be tested twice a week and wear a mask.

Austria, for its part, has announced that it is awaiting the green light from Parliament for the confinement of people who have not been vaccinated or have not healed from the coronavirus. For their part, the Netherlands have decided to return to “partial confinement”, the first of the winter in Western Europe, with “severe” health restrictions for three weeks.

Should we fear a large number of deaths?

“If we stay on this trajectory, we could see another half a million deaths from Covid-19 in the region by February”, alarmed the director of Europe of the World Organization last week. health (WHO). Over the past seven days, the continent has recorded 28,216 deaths, an average of 4,031 per day (+ 10% from the previous week, + 18% from two weeks ago).

By comparison, a year ago, the region recorded 3,785 deaths on average per day on November 8, an increase of 41% from the previous week and + 109% from the week before. “We are witnessing a wave of contamination due to the Delta variant and lower temperatures, but vaccination should prevent a correlation with hospitalizations”, says Yves Coppieters.

Will vaccinating more be enough?

No, answers Yves Coppieters. “The key is of course to vaccinate those most at risk to achieve group immunity.” “For the rest of the population, it is above all necessary to maintain barrier gestures, indoor ventilation and a testing policy,” he said. To fight the pandemic, the WHO called last week to continue vaccination, to use masks on a massive scale and to practice social distancing measures.