BFMTV SURVEY – Presidential: Zemmour retreats, but remains in 3rd position behind Macron and Le Pen – BFMTV

The far-right polemicist loses 1 to 2 points and Marine Le Pen is ahead of him by 3 to 5 points depending on the configurations, according to our latest opinion poll carried out by Elabe for BFMTV and broadcast this Thursday.

Stop in the breakthrough of Eric Zemmour? For the first time since the start of the school year, according to our Opinion 2022 survey, carried out by Elabe for BFMTV and The Express with our partner SFR and broadcast this Thursday, voting intentions in favor of the far-right polemicist are decreasing. The latter still refuses to say whether he will be a presidential candidate, while leaving less and less room for doubt.

Five hypotheses are tested in the first round, depending on who will represent Les Républicains in the ballot. Thus Emmanuel Macron comes first in all configurations, with a score ranging from 25% to 30% of voting intentions. He would collect 25% of the votes in the event of Xavier Bertrand’s candidacy, and 30% if the right was represented by Eric Ciotti.

The Head of State “emerges strengthened from his speech “on Tuesday, says Elabe.

Marine Le Pen is also down slightly

Notable fact of our survey: Eric Zemmour loses one to two points depending on the configuration, or remains stable. In the event of the candidacy of Xavier Bertrand or Valérie Pécresse, he receives 14% of voting intentions, 13% in the event of the candidacy of Michel Barnier and 15% in the event of the candidacy of Eric Ciotti and Philippe Juvin. Since the start of the school year, the Zemmour hypothesis tested in the polls has shown continuous progress.

Another lesson from our Elabe poll, Marine Le Pen is also on the decline. If the candidate of the National Rally (RN) widens the gap with Eric Zemmour, she also accuses a drop of one to two points. It would collect 17% of the voting intentions in the first round in the event of the candidacy of Xavier Bertrand or Éric Ciotti, and 18% in the event of the candidacy of Valérie Pécresse, Michel Barnier or Philippe Juvin.

The margin of error for this survey is between 1.1 and 3 points, a margin less than the difference observed between Marine Le Pen and Éric Zemmour.

Zemmour drops in two polls

A decrease to be compared with that highlighted by the Odoxa-Saegus survey for The Obs published this Thursday, which highlights comparable dynamics. According to this publication, the former journalist of Figaro would collect 14% of the vote, in the event of the candidacy of Xavier Bertrand on the right, and 14.5% of the votes in the event of the candidacy of Valérie Pécresse or Michel Barnier.

In the event of Xavier Bertrand’s candidacy, Marine Le Pen would obtain 18% of the votes in the first round, according to this Odoxa-Saegus survey. It would collect 18.5% in a configuration with Valérie Pécresse, and 19% in the event of Michel Barnier’s candidacy. Emmanuel Macron remains in the lead in voting intentions, with 25% in each of the three configurations.

Macron widens the gap in the second round

In the current state of the poll, the second round would oppose Emmanuel Macron to Marine Le Pen. The outgoing head of state would obtain 58% of the vote, against 42% for Marine Le Pen, according to a survey Elabe. For the record, in 2017, Emmanuel Macron won with 66.1% of the vote against Marine Le Pen, who won 33.9% of the vote.

The hypothesis of a second round against Eric Zemmour is also tested. The President of the Republic would win more widely with 65 points, against 35 for his opponent.

Facing Xavier Bertrand, Emmanuel Macron would also win, with 55% of the vote, against 45% for the president of Hauts-de-France.

At this stage, 56% of those registered on the electoral rolls questioned are completely certain of going to the polls, and 24% are seriously considering it.