Libya: an international conference in Paris to support the fragile electoral process

France, which is hosting an international conference on Libya on Friday November 12 in Paris, seeks to give a final “boost” to the presidential election of December 24, which should be followed a month later by legislative elections. The holding of these two elections is, in the eyes of Emmanuel Macron, “essential to stability and political reconciliation” in Libya, after years of armed conflict and divisions between East and West.

“But ‘spoilers’ [ceux qui veulent gâcher la dynamique en cours, NDLR] are in ambush, they are trying to derail the process, “said the Elysee on Tuesday, presenting the stakes of this great diplomatic meeting.

The conference is being organized against a backdrop of growing tensions within the interim government ahead of the presidential election. In particular between Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dbeibah, who heads the interim government, and Mohammed el-Menfi, the president of the Presidential Council (PC), set up in February as part of a political process sponsored by the UN and comprising three members representing the three regions of Libya.

A sign of these tensions, on November 6, the head of Libyan diplomacy was suspended from her functions by the CP after the opening of an investigation into foreign policy decisions that she allegedly took without consulting it.

The rising star of the Libyan political scene, Najla al-Mangoush, has even been banned from leaving the territory for the duration of the investigation, which can last up to 14 days. A decision that will inevitably make him miss the Paris conference. “The growing rift between CP President Mohammed el-Menfi and Dbeibah has flared up, el-Menfi jumping on a poor excuse to suspend Minister al-Mangoush,” tweeted Tarek Megerisi, analyst at the European Council on Relations international.

While the exact facts against the minister have not been clarified, local media indicate that her suspension follows statements made to the BBC a few days earlier. A media outlet during which she said that Tripoli would be “ready to cooperate with the United States” for the extradition of a suspect in the Lockerbie attack.

Result: the level of representation of Libya at the Paris conference is not yet known. Abdelhamid Dbeibah has not yet confirmed his arrival while Mohammed el-Menfi is on the other hand expected in the French capital. “We sent the invitation to both (…). We are in discussion with both. For the moment, there is no problem,” said Tuesday, the Elysee.

Acceptance of election results, a priority issue

In this context of political upheavals, one of the objectives of this conference is to “make the electoral process incontestable and irreversible” and to ensure that the result of the elections is then “respected”, insisted the French presidency.

“The electoral process is based on two basic principles, namely, firstly, to organize the poll on the agreed date and in a climate conducive to elections, and secondly, on the respect and acceptance of the results by the candidates”, recalls Hussein Moftah, Libyan journalist and deputy editor-in-chief of the Afrigatenews site, interviewed on the Arabic-speaking branch of France 24.

“However, it is this last sensitive point which represents the greatest challenge awaiting the Libyan elections, he continues, while the electoral competition is open and all the actors have chances in this election, including Seïf al-Islam Gaddafi. , which is not yet officially a candidate “. The son of the late dictator spoke in July 2021 of the possibility of running for president in an interview with the New York Times.

>> To read also: “Libya: The return of a Gaddafi to power, a simple matter of time?”

While some voices were raised against the organization of the elections on the basis of electoral laws adopted by the Parliament sitting in the East and contested by the authorities in the West, the submission of candidatures finally opened on Monday.

Hussein Moftah believes that it is up to the provisional authorities and the various Libyan camps to cooperate in order not only to support, despite their differences, the organization of these elections, but also to guarantee that “the political exercise will remain peaceful” after the results.

“It is a local challenge, but also an international one, in the sense that the foreign powers, which have a great influence on political and armed actors of this conflict, must also take their responsibilities and support the Libyans in order to guarantee the success complete this process. “

The question of outstanding foreign mercenaries

While the Libyan conflict has been marked by the direct and indirect involvement of external powers, the Libyans are struggling to ensure respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of their country.

Last December, the UN reported some 20,000 mercenaries and foreign fighters present in Libya: Russians from the private group Wagner, Chadians, Sudanese, Syrians … But also several hundred Turkish soldiers present under a bilateral agreement concluded with the former Government of National Unity. Only a few “very modest” departures have since been noted, according to Tripoli.

The French executive, who wants to see the “Libyan plan for the departure of foreign forces and mercenaries” endorsed at the conference, concedes that in this area, the game remains “difficult”. And for good reason: Turkey is in no hurry to initiate a withdrawal of its forces and the Kremlin denies any sending of soldiers or mercenaries to Libya as well as any link with the Wagner group.

To achieve progress, French diplomacy is banking on the international dimension of the Paris conference, which will be co-chaired by France, Germany, Italy – three countries on the front line in the search for a solution to the crisis – , the United Nations and Libya. Officials from most of the countries involved in the Libyan crisis or its settlement, including US Vice President Kamala Harris and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, will be present, the Elysee said without providing an exhaustive list.

Russia, which supports, like Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, the strong man of eastern Libya, Marshal Khalifa Haftar – President Emmanuel Macron is also criticized for such a position – will be represented by his Minister of Affairs foreigners, Sergey Lavrov, said Moscow.

The level of representation of Turkey, which sided with the Tripoli camp against that of Marshal Haftar and whose relations are strained with Paris, has not been specified.

Finally, and for the first time, this event will be extended to all the neighboring countries of Libya, with the presence of Tunisia, Niger and Chad, three border countries which are all suffering the repercussions of the Libyan crisis. And even Algeria, in the midst of a diplomatic crisis with France and which recalled its ambassador to Paris last month and closed its airspace to French military planes, will be represented.

With AFP