(CNN Spanish) – Sunday marked a before and after for the National Regeneration Movement (Morena), a political party that brought Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador to power in 2018.
Morena reached the midterm elections on Sunday – which were the largest in the history of the country – with full dominance in the Chamber of Deputies, in the mayoralties that make up Mexico City and some states.
But, according to the Preliminary Electoral Results Program (PREP), the panorama changed on these fronts, in some cases positively for Morena and in others with loss of dominance for AMLO’s party.
Morena in the Chamber of Deputies
The PREP of Sunday’s elections indicates that Morena would have between 190 and 203 legislators in the Chamber of Deputies for the period 2021-2024, counting both those with a relative majority (direct election) and those with proportional representation (the so-called multi-member) .
Its allies, the PREP indicates, would have the following places in the lower house: the Labor Party (PT) would add between 35 and 41 legislators; and the Green Ecologist Party of Mexico (PVEM) would obtain between 40 and 48.
With these legislators, Morena and his allies would easily have a simple majority to approve issues such as the budget each year; however, they would not reach the qualified majority, which is needed to approve changes to the Constitution.
“The absolute majority does not legally exist; it is a simple majority or a qualified majority in the case of the Chambers (of Deputies and the Senate), ”López Obrador commented on Monday in his morning conference.
«What is the simple majority? It is half plus one, that is what we have had and we will continue to have. What is needed for the approval of the budget? Simple majority, half plus one. What is the qualified majority? They are two-thirds of the vote, “added the president of Mexico.
In contrast, Morena currently has 253 legislators (among those with a relative majority and multi-member) in the Chamber of DeputiesTherefore, this election would mean a decrease of around 50 seats for López Obrador’s party.
Relative majority deputies
The president of Mexico said at the conference that, regarding the deputies of direct election, Morena and his allies (PT and PVEM) will have around 184 seats out of a total of 300 by the principle of relative majority for the LXV Legislature (period 2021-2024).
“This is possibly more than we had (for the 2018-2021 period),” said López Obrador.
However, this statement by AMLO can be refuted, since, according to information from the Chamber of Deputies, the current LXIV Legislature (2018-2021) has 162 deputies only from Morena. If those of his ally PT, which are 40, are added, these two parties reach 202 seats, 18 more than those indicated by the president of Mexico for the period 2021-2024.
If the deputies currently held by the PVEM and the Encuentro Solidario Party (PES, which was an ally of Morena in 2018) are also added, the total in the current Legislature would go from 202 to 226 legislators in the lower house with a relative majority.
Morena loses ground in Mexico City
In 2018, Morena swept the Mexican capital, this by taking the government of 11 mayors out of a total of 16 that make up the territorial division of Mexico City.
However, three years later, the picture changed in the capital. According to the PREP, the PAN together with its allies (PRD and PRI) won nine mayoralties, when in 2018 they only obtained five.
Meanwhile, Morena, in alliance with the PT, won a total of 7 mayoralties in Sunday’s elections, according to the PREP. This means that the opposition to Morena has more than half of Mexico City.
What caused this drastic change in the capital of the country? López Obrador said that “we have to work more with the people here in Mexico City because it is a contrast,” he said at the conference this Monday.
López Obrador indicated this Monday that Morena “governed one of the 15 states” that were at stake in Sunday’s elections.
“The party that we founded governed a state of the 15 and not only wins that state again, but also wins many others, so progress was made,” commented the president of Mexico.
The state that Morena ruled was Baja California, which he won again in the elections largest in history.
Likewise, the states that changed for Morena in these elections are the following: Warrior (before the PRI), Colima (before the PRI), Baja California Sur (before PAN), Zacatecas (before the PRI), Campeche (before the PRI), Michoacan (before the PRD), Nayarit (before PAN), Sinaloa (before the PRI), Sonora (before the PRI) and Tlaxcala (before the PRI).
“What was reaffirmed yesterday is that the transformation policy continue and the people decided it,” said López Obrador.