Is the situation in Slovakia really that bad? Data analysts made it clear: Good news! – Topky.sk

From Monday, most of Slovakia is colored burgundy or black. The only exception is a few districts in western Slovakia. Bratislava, Dunajská Streda and Galanta are red, Komárno and Šaľa are orange and such strict rules do not apply here. However, in view of the deteriorating epidemic situation, experts have proposed a set of stricter measures that would greatly disadvantage and restrict the unvaccinated and, conversely, favor the vaccinated. However, the data without pathos looked at what it really is and brought some positive news for people.

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“We are not in an easy situation, but the only thing that will help us is a rational view of the situation, analysis of existing data and prediction of what awaits us. In alternatives: pessimistic, neutral, optimistic, ” explained. First, they looked at the allegedly dramatic increase in positively tested Slovaks. Thousands of positive ones have been added in the last days – 5341, 6713, 6805, 6502, 5338, 3015 are the daily numbers infected during the past week. However, in the last week of October, the numbers were much lower – 2850, 4746, 4981, 4587, 5142, 4036, 1856.

“This week, on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Thursdays and even Fridays, the numbers were high, record high, rising dramatically, “again more than 6,000.” The media. The summary of 25361 this week in 4 days is 30% more than 19456 in the same 4 days last week. Really + 30%? ” data analysts thought. The figures for the past week were reflected in the visit to the pub. They pointed out that if a guy had three beers instead of two beers instead of two and they weren’t tens but twelve, they would not only get more beers, but also stronger ones with a higher alcohol content, which would translate into a guy from it starts to “twist”. According to data analysts, this is also due to the fact that you drank more beers, as well as the fact that they were stronger. Subsequently, these facts were reflected in the allegedly extremely high numbers of positively tested.

Source: korona.gov.sk

Source: korona.gov.sk

“Last week, the positivity of the tests was 26.6% and this week it was 31%. They told you and us. And that would explain the increase in the number of positives by almost 17%. But the increase was 30%. Where the hell is the difference and why did it happen? They didn’t tell you (but we found out for you) that 82,000 tests were done in 4 days this week. 73,000 tests were performed in 4 days last week. The volume increased by more than 12%. Does it make a difference? It does and big, ” analysts pointed out that the good news for Slovakia is that many more tests were performed last week. This is because those who have passed a positive test now have it in black and white, and if the daily number of tests performed had not increased, they would probably have learned this report later, if at all.

Source: FB / Data without pathos

In addition, they added that the same principle would have occurred if a larger number of tests had been performed the week before. If the difference between the two weeks in the number of tests performed (9,000) were multiplied by the average positivity of the tests (0.266), we would get the number 2394 – so many people would probably detect the tests. However, according to analysts, this number would be smaller. “But it depends on which district they would have been made. If it were in Stará Ľubovňa, where the positivity was 45%, then more positives would be found. If they were done in Dunajská Streda, it’s a shame for money, “ pointed out. In other words – although there were almost 30 percent more positives and the positivity of the tests increased from 27 to 31 percent, last week there were 17 percent more positives in the same group. In addition, 12 percent more positives were found due to the higher real number of tests performed, in a larger test group.

Source: Getty Images

“We leave it to epidemiologists to calculate the reproductive number, but note that the increase in the number of positives is NOT 30%. Thanks to the ministry, more PCR tests are being done this year, which allows us to better understand WHERE HOW MANY Positives are there. And the trend is “our friend” because the number of tests is still growing. Good job. The increase in the density of positives is about 17% and it is a significant number that will cause the number of hospitalized patients to increase. It is probably reasonable to assume that the increase in the number of revenues over “some” comparable period will be around the 17%. No, it will not be + 30%. It will be + 17% sooner, “ analysts explained that reported hospital admissions are delayed approximately 6 days after reporting positivity in daily statistics.

Among other things, three times the number of positives and twice the positivity have caused hospital incomes to rise, but the good news is that we have been growing more slowly since then and the numbers seem to be stable. “The increase in the number of patients in hospitals, which doubled from 1,000 to 2,000 in 17 days (20 October to 5 November), should not be repeated and the growth will be much slower, supported by an increase in the average number of patients discharged in November ( which is already manifested in the number of 890 released / deceased in the first 4 days). Howgh, ” they stated and pointed out the estimates they presented at the end of October – according to their calculations, 1200 to 1,600 were to be hospitalized at the end of October and 1413 of them were in reality, ie exactly in the middle of their interval. In conclusion, they stated that the more positive revealed, the better.