ANALYSIS | Elections in Nicaragua pose two great challenges for the region

(CNN) – No surprises are expected in Nicaragua’s upcoming elections on November 7, after President Daniel Ortega spent most of the year tightening his grip on the country.

With seven opposition candidates behind bars and thousands of critics abroad, where they can escape the oppressive control of the Ortega police, the septuagenarian leader and his picturesque wife, Rosario Murillo, appear to have indisputable control of the outcome of the vote. . The biggest question now is not who will win, but how the rest of the region will react once Ortega declares his victory.

Democracy has been eroding across Latin America: From north to south, the Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated the trend for regional warlords to take over the political arena and work to weaken democratic controls.

In February 2020, El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele ordered the military to storm parliament to “incite” lawmakers to authorize a loan to his government. In August this year, his example was followed by Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who organized a military parade in Brasilia just as Congress was debating a Bolsonaro-backed voting system reform (the reform was not approved).

Support for democracy falls among Latin Americans

According to a regional survey of more than 20,000 people carried out by the polling firm Latinobarometer, less than 50% of Latin Americans surveyed in 2020 say that democracy is preferable to any other form of government and more than one in ten openly advocates an authoritarian regime.

Support for authoritarianism is higher in the younger generations, according to the survey, since 49% of people between 16 and 25 years old declare themselves in favor of an authoritarian regime or indifferent to different forms of government.

And the disregard for democratic governance seems particularly acute in Central America, with the majority of respondents in the impoverished Northern Triangle nations, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador saying they would favor undemocratic government “if it solves the problems of the country “.

Nicaragua and two challenges for the region

In June, former Costa Rican President Laura Chinchilla described the wave of arrests by the Ortega government as “the night of the long knives in the tropics,” while US State Department spokesman Ned Price , has said that the repressive conditions in Nicaragua simply “They are not consistent with credible elections.”

But the vote goes ahead anyway.

And now that he has intimidated or locked up all viable political opponents, Ortega’s long-awaited reelection in Nicaragua presents two challenges for the rest of the region: Will other leaders demonstrate against this subversion of democratic processes? And how are they going to recognize the numerous multilateral systems designed to defend democracy in Latin America – the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR), the Organization of American States (OAS), and smaller groups such as the Pacific Alliance or the Community Andina- its failure to prevent Nicaragua from sliding into dictatorship?

While many countries have condemned the detention of opposition figures in Nicaragua – and the United States has even imposed sanctions – they may hesitate to push, much more so after the failure of international efforts in the case of Venezuela in recent years. .

The memory of Venezuela

After contested elections in 2019, dozens of foreign governments chose not to recognize Nicolás Maduro as the legitimate leader of Venezuela, favoring opposition leader Juan Guaido instead. But the strategy backfired: two years later, Maduro retains control of the country and has effectively won his battle against international pressure.

The president of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro.

“I think the Venezuelan crisis caused some caution among the international community about what to do in Nicaragua,” says Tiziano Breda, a Central American analyst at the International Crisis Group.

“After investing so much in Guaidó, and creating this impasse in Venezuela that has not resolved the crisis there, there is less clarity about what an alternative strategy could be for Nicaragua: opposing Ortega, sure, but what is the alternative?” Breda told CNN.

One of the reasons why the political crisis in Venezuela unleashed so much regional reaction is because it went hand in hand with a migratory crisis: 4.6 million Venezuelans have so far fled the country, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).

In contrast, political oppression in Nicaragua has not triggered a similar mass exodus that forces its neighbors to act, at least not yet.