Western Sahara: the Abrahamic Agreements, at the origins of the escalation between Algeria and Morocco

Week after week, the tension increases between Morocco and Algeria. The two great powers of the Maghreb, which have maintained stormy neighborly relations for several years, took a new step on Wednesday, November 3, after serious accusations made by the Algerian presidency against Rabat.

The official Algerian press agency APS relayed a statement in which the presidency reveals that “three Algerian nationals were cowardly murdered by a barbaric bombardment of their trucks while they were making the Nouakchott-Ouargla link”, a road connecting the Mauritania to Algeria along the Western Sahara.

“Several factors point to the Moroccan occupation forces in Western Sahara as having committed, with sophisticated weaponry, this cowardly assassination”, underlines the text, in which Algiers warns that “their assassination will not go unpunished”.

For their part, the Moroccan authorities made no official comment, while the Mauritanian army denied in a statement that such an attack had occurred on Mauritanian territory.

“A dangerous diplomatic game”

Even if it is necessary to wait for all the parties concerned to provide clarifications, this event is part of the negative spiral in which the two countries are sinking, in particular because of the thorny issue of Western Sahara. A spiral which dates back precisely to the end of August and the announcement of the break by Algeria of its diplomatic relations with its Moroccan neighbor, which it accuses of “hostile actions”.

Charges which were renewed on Sunday by Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune when ordering the public group Sonatrach not to renew the gas pipeline contract passing through Morocco and supplying gas to Spain.

“There is, undoubtedly, an additional degree in the rise of diplomatic tensions between the two regional powers, notes Béligh Nabli, lecturer in public law, researcher associated with Ceri and author of ‘Géopolitique de la Méditerranée’ (Armand Colin , 2015). This diplomatic game is dangerous, it could well slip and take on a military dimension on the basis of this type of incident. “

Donald Trump’s “game changer”

For the experts, the “game changer”, the event which changed the situation, and which is therefore at the origin of the deterioration of the situation, was the recognition by the United States of Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara. Occidental, December 10, 2020.

Since 1963, Western Sahara has been considered a non-autonomous territory by the UN, while it has been disputed for more than 45 years between Rabat and the Sahrawi separatists, supported by Algeria.

The only territory on the African continent with unregulated postcolonial status, since Spain’s withdrawal in 1975, it is 80% controlled by Morocco, which rejects any solution other than autonomy under its sovereignty, and 20% by the Front Polisario, which calls for a self-determination referendum. So far, all attempts to resolve the conflict have failed.

“The regional geostrategic balance has been upset by the recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the whole of Western Sahara by the Trump administration,” said Nasser Weddady, researcher and consultant specializing in the Middle East and North Africa, invited of the Arab branch of France 24. This recognition caused a shock for all parties, which needed some time to reposition themselves. “

Donald Trump, whose decision, described at the time as a “historic position” by Rabat, had ulcerated the Polisario Front and Algeria, announced the same day the normalization of relations between the kingdom of Morocco and Israel.

And this, as had done other Arab countries within the framework of the so-called agreements of Abraham, led by the White House. The question of this normalization was raised in February 2020, during an official visit to Morocco by Mike Pompeo, then head of American diplomacy. At the time, Israeli media suggested that the Moroccans would be ready to take the plunge in return for Washington’s support on the Western Sahara issue.

“The signing of the Abrahamic accords in the winter of 2020 certainly contributed to igniting the powder, recently explained to France 24 Pierre Vermeren, professor of contemporary Maghreb history at the University of Paris I. This multilateral agreement signed by Morocco, the United States, Israel and the Gulf monarchies has resulted in Washington’s recognition of the Moroccan character of the Sahara. For Algeria, this is clearly a casus belli. “

An opinion shared by Béligh Nabli. “This transaction, a form of bargaining, between Morocco and the United States and Israel on the one hand, was seen in Algiers as a political aggression which launched a diplomatic process leading to the breakdown of diplomatic relations between the two countries, at the initiative of the Algerians “, he underlines.

War, a “red line” for all actors?

While the rift between the two Maghreb rivals worsens, against a background of regional antagonism, the risks of a military explosion seem for the moment contained.

“An informed Moroccan source”, quoted and presented thus by AFP, said Wednesday, in reaction to Algerian accusations, that “if Algeria wants war, Morocco does not”. And to add, deploring the “gratuitous accusations” against Rabat: “Morocco will not be drawn into a war with Algeria.”

For Béligh Nabli, Morocco has no interest in entering a military spiral, because the kingdom is in the process of “garnering diplomatic successes, which precisely nourish Algerian inclinations”.

The most recent success came on October 29, with the adoption of a UN Security Council resolution extending the Minurso mission in Western Sahara for one year. The text, which also calls on “the parties (…) to refrain from any action which could undermine the negotiations led by the UN or further destabilize the situation in Western Sahara”, was hailed by Rabat as a victory, the Shereefian kingdom considering that this UN resolution responds to “the agitation of the adversaries of Morocco”.

For its part, the Algerian Foreign Ministry said in a statement that “Algeria will not support this partial resolution which has the effect of reinforcing the exorbitant claims of the occupying state. [le Maroc, NDLR]”.

“No actor has an interest in the escalation in the region, because no one has an interest in starting a war, it is a red line for everyone, concludes Nasser Weddady. It is desirable that all actors in the conflict return to the political path in order to find a solution that can satisfy all parties, even if it seems impossible in the short term. “

This is what the seasoned Italian diplomat Staffan de Mistura, the new UN envoy, will have to tackle, whose task is to relaunch UN mediation since 1^er November.