The members of OPEC + began their meetings Thursday with the objective of deciding on their level of oil production for the month of December, under pressure from consumer countries who are calling on them to open the floodgates more.
Ministers from the thirteen members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and ten allies via the OPEC + agreement began shortly after 1:00 p.m. GMT (2:00 p.m. in Paris and Vienna, at the cartel headquarters) the first of their two sessions of the day, according to a source close to the organization.
This joint ministerial monitoring committee (JMMC) of the Opep + agreement precedes the ministerial summit itself, scheduled for 2:00 p.m. GMT.
Most analysts are counting on a continuation of the current strategy, namely the daily return to the market of 400,000 barrels in the last month of the year, while the alliance still leaves more than 4 million barrels underground every day. .
“Everything suggests that members of OPEC + will choose to stick to the current plan,” said Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank, for example.
The discontent of consumers, the United States in the lead, is however urgent in favor of a more frank gesture on the part of the alliance.
The fact that “Russia, Saudi Arabia and other big producers do not pump more oil (…) is not fair”, lamented Sunday evening the American President Joe Biden, on the sidelines of the summit of the G20 in Rome, directly targeting OPEC +.
The leader of the first crude consumer country has something to look down on: the benchmark US crude contract, WTI, was trading at the start of the week around $ 85 per barrel, very close to its highest since 2014 reached last week. .
The prices of the two benchmark contracts were also up sharply Thursday at 13:30 GMT: WTI gained 2.71% to 83.05 dollars and Brent appreciated 2.74% to 84.24 dollars.
“Given the intensity of the pressure exerted by the White House and other consumer countries, we can in no way exclude that Saudi Arabia (leader of the alliance, Editor’s note) may give the green light to an increase of more than 400,000 barrels per day Thursday, “said Helima Croft of the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC).
A scenario that Han Tan, analyst at Exinity, considers “improbable”.
Risk factors
Other nations greedy in black gold such as India and Japan are also pushing OPEC + to react.
The organization itself echoed a virtual meeting on Friday between its secretary general Mohammed Barkindo and Hardeep Singh Puri, an Indian minister whose vast portfolio relates to energy, the latter insisting on “the volatility of current market and high prices “.
But for the moment, OPEC + insists on the risk factors hovering over demand in order to justify maintaining its prudent policy, also evoking the – very real – new peaks of Covid-19 contamination observed in Russia and China.
This strategy, favorable to the producers’ funds, also makes it possible to spare a place for one of its members today excluded from the market, Iran.
The Iranian nuclear negotiations to save the agreement concluded in 2015, supposed to prevent Tehran from acquiring atomic weapons – an agreement that the United States unilaterally denounced in 2018 – will resume on November 29 in Vienna.
A favorable outcome would logically sign Iran’s medium-term return to the black gold market, which could result in an additional supply of around 2 million barrels per day.
Several market observers have also shared their doubts about the ability of some members of the cartel to be able to further increase their production, the drilling installations having suffered during the pandemic from delays in servicing and maintenance.
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