More than 5,000 cases of Covid-19 per day: can we already speak of the “fifth wave” of the epidemic? – LCI

a “very slight rebound”. This is how the government spokesperson, Gabriel Attal, describes the current health situation in France. For several days, the number of cases has stopped falling. On average, it is even slightly above the symbolic bar of 5,000 daily contaminations. And the national incidence rate has crossed the threshold of 50 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, a first since September.

However, on the side of the executive, we still refuse to evoke a “fifth wave”, after the fourth of summer. “There is a very slight rebound, but at the moment we can’t talk about a fifth wave”, insisted this Tuesday morning on Europe 1 Gabriel Attal, who notes that the increase in contamination is not “exponential.”

The shadow of a new wave, the third in 2021, however hangs over France. But according to epidemiologist Philippe Amouyel, professor of public health, it would only be a fluctuation of the fourth. “A wave consists of an extremely rapid increase in contamination”, he explains to LCI. “Each time, there was a good reason. During the first wave, there was no barrier measure. During the second, we relaxed completely in the summer of 2020. During the third, the English variant, more transmissible, arrived. And in the fourth, there was the Delta variant, even more contagious. “

This time, France does not observe any new variant on the horizon (the Delta represents more than 96% of contaminations). Barrier gestures (wearing a mask, health pass …) still punctuate the daily life of the French. In this sense, “what we are currently seeing are still the elements of the fourth wave”, concludes Philippe Amouyel.

Especially since if the number of cases is on the rise, the increase remains moderate. The R0, symbol of the speed of circulation of the virus, stands at 1.06, two times less than the peak of last summer. And this time, the majority of the eligible population has received at least one dose of vaccine (88%), when the recall campaign for the most vulnerable is in full swing. “We stay at low rates, we flirt with the alert threshold (50 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, editor’s note), but we do not reach the emergency thresholds that we were able to know “, tempers the epidemiologist.

According to the public health professor, only the appearance of a new strain of the virus could trigger a real new wave. “The fifth wave will be if we meet a new variant. But right now we’re still fighting the same one.”, he continues. “The number of cases is still likely to increase, with the indirect relaxation of barrier measures. But these are only the turmoil of the fourth wave.”