• Fri. Jan 21st, 2022

Covid, hospitals are emptied and cases and deaths drop: the report

Byeditorial

Jun 3, 2021

Further decrease in new cases of Covid-19 (22,412 vs 30,867) and deaths (720 vs 1,004) in the week 26 May-1 June, compared to the previous one. There was also a sharp decline in cases currently positive (225,751 vs 268,145), people in home isolation (218,570 vs 258,265), hospitalizations with symptoms (6,192 vs 8,557) and intensive care (989 vs 1,323). This was revealed by the latest report by the Gimbe Foundation, which in its independent monitoring indicates for the various parameters the reductions calculated in the last week compared with the previous one: deaths -28.3%, hospitalized in intensive care -25.2%, hospitalized with symptoms -27.6%, people in home isolation -15.4%, new cases -27.4%, currently positive cases -15.8%. “For 11 consecutive weeks – declares Nino Cartabellotta, president of the Gimbe Foundation – the downward trend of new cases has been confirmed, both for the reduced circulation of the virus, as demonstrated by the reduction in the positive / cases tested ratio, and for the decrease in testing activities “. The decline in new weekly cases is confirmed in all Regions – underlines Gimbe – with the exception of a percentage increase in Molise, irrelevant in absolute value. “Deaths have also been steadily decreasing since mid-April, averaging just over 100 per day in the last week”, underlines Cartabellotta. “Thanks to the vaccination coverage of the elderly and the frail – says Renata Gili, Head of Research on Health Services of the Gimbe Foundation – the gradual emptying of hospitals continues. The occupation of Covid beds nationwide stands at 10% in the medical area and ‘11% in intensive care, with all regions under the alert thresholds “, he adds. “The admissions to intensive care – remarks Marco Mosti, operational director of the Gimbe Foundation – have dropped from 9 weeks with a 7-day moving average of 36 admissions / day”. From the peak of April 6 – reports Gimbe – the number of beds occupied in the medical area fell from 29,337 to 6,192 (-78.9%) and those in intensive care from 3,743 to 989 (-73.6%). The curve of people in home isolation falls less rapidly: from the peak of March 28 they have decreased from 540,855 to 218,570 (-59.6%). Criticalities The report highlights two criticalities: the drop in numbers in the swabs (-34%) and a sequencing that is not yet optimal and shows differences in performance between the Regions of Italy. In this phase of decreased circulation of the virus and easing of the pressure on hospitals, we observe “the reduction in testing activity which certifies the renouncement of case tracking – points out Gimbe – In detail, the number of people tested weekly, stable until in the first ten days of May, it decreased in the last 3 weeks from 662,549 to 439,467 (-33.7%). And in the same period 120 people per day per 100 thousand inhabitants were tested on average with clear differences. regional: from 199 in Lazio to 49 in Puglia. “Unfortunately – points out Cartabellotta – the criteria for conquering and maintaining the white zone, introduced with Legislative Decree 18 May 2021 n. 65, discourage the Regions from strengthening testing activities and resuming tracing, just when the numbers of the infection would allow the use of a weapon that has never been adequately used “. As for sequencing, regional heterogeneity stands out. distribution of variants of the Sars-CoV-2 virus of interest for public health in Italy – recalls Gimbe – the Higher Institute of Health reports that in the period 28 December 2020-19 May 2021 1.11% of cases were sequenced positive (23,170). Since February 2021, more than 1,000 cases have been sequenced per week, in line with the standards of the European Center for Disease and Control (Ecdc), albeit with very heterogeneous regional performances: from 6.05% in Abruzzo to 0, 09% of Piedmont. “An insufficient sequencing activity – specifies Cartabellotta – does not allow to identify the most contagious variants until after the increase in cases, nor to adapt vaccination strategies if necessary. For example, on the delta (Indian) variant, more contagious by 20-60%, the efficacy of a single dose of vaccine on symptomatic disease is around 33% for both the Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines, while after the complete cycle it rises respectively. 88% and 60% “. The proposals Gimbe launches 4 proposals:” To provide the new system for assigning colors to the Regions the necessary corrections (for example a standard of swabs per 100 thousand inhabitants), to encourage testing and resume tracking, without fear of not conquering or losing the white zone; define a unique way to promptly identify and stem any outbreaks; enhance the sequencing of variants, in particular in some regions, and in case of spread of the Indian variant, administer the second dose of vaccine to the elderly and frail according to the optimal range of clinical trials; implement new strategies to vaccinate the over 3.3 million over 60s without coverage and at high risk of hospitalization (for example, active calls, dedicated open days, dedicated institutional communication “.

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