Delta variant, Abrignani: “By the end of August 30 thousand cases per day”

The Delta variant pushes the infections that by the end of August could be over 30 thousand a day, that is, how many today in Great Britain. This is what Sergio Abrignani, immunologist of the University of Milan and member of the CTS argues, in an interview with ‘La Repubblica’, where however he underlines how Italy must observe what happens in the country led by Boris Johnson to decide what interventions to take. . “Above all, we see the impact of serious cases which, for now, do not seem like many. Covid could become like a flu,” he says. As for the celebrations for Italy’s victory at the European football championships, the expert admits: “Nobody knows yet how much they will affect the growth of infections, but we can say that it was a risky behavior. However, even when Inter Milan won the Scudetto and there were impressive cases of gathering, but no peaks were observed, even if it was the times when the English variant was spreading, not the Delta. In a period of 4 to 7 days we will see if infections increase “. However, Abrigani underlines, “in this unpleasant situation, it makes us feel good to see that, where the vaccination rate is high, one is protected from severe forms. Instead of dying, one infected person in 50, in fact, losing his life is one in a thousand “. In Italy “we expect a little less protection but we are not giving up everything like the British and then we have far fewer cases of them, that is on average a thousand against over 30 thousand a day. However, in a month and a half we will reach their same numbers “. “However, we have the advantage of being able to observe how things are going with them, given that we are about a month and a half behind. It is not certain that in the end they are right but certainly their politics has a scientific basis. If we see that they reach 70 or 80 thousand infections a day and they do not have a significant increase in the employment of intensive care or deaths, the politics of our country will decide what to do. Of course, Italy has never been closed due to a flu “. “Vaccinations are the only certainty we have. One dose still protects against serious illness. We also know from Israeli studies that in the face of the Delta variant, two doses of Pfizer protect less from mild or asymptomatic illness, as coverage drops from 94. 64%, but they are still effective against the heavier forms, given that the two percentages are respectively 95 and 93% “, recalls Abrignani who on the third dose says:” We do not yet know how long the immune memory of those who are vaccinated lasts. wait and understand when those who had the first administration, between January and February of this year, will start to get seriously ill. At that point we will know how long the vaccine is effective but in the meantime, thanks to all those we have used in the last 50 years, we know that immunological memory usually lasts for years, not months. However, it is possible that a third booster dose will serve, first of all, the most vulnerable people. ” .