Covid, mathematician Roccetti: “So many deaths? But there is no imbalance with second wave data”

“The rate of the infected falls very slowly but the number of Covid victims, even compared to Europe, remains incredibly high, has been oscillating between 300 and over 400 for too many days now. But compared to the second wave there is no imbalance”. This was stated to Adnkronos by Marco Roccetti, Professor of Data Science at the University of Bologna, according to whom the methodology for counting deaths should be reviewed but as a whole. “Today we have approximately 1,400 people in intensive care, in November 2020 we had about 3,600 with the number of victims reaching 800, while today the trend is 400 deaths. So the data does not surprise me, there is no imbalance – Roccetti underlines -, given that in the course of the second wave, there were double the deaths of today in the face, however, of more than double the intensive therapies “. As for the criteria for counting deaths, according to the mathematician, “there is clearly a lack of a rigorous statistical-mathematical analysis of the correlations between the number of hospitalizations, intensive care and deaths”. And if a Delta queue can be responsible, he points out that “we don’t have enough specialist centers capable of sequencing and deciding whether a person has been infected with the Delta or Omicron variant, we proceed by sampling while staying within approximate statistics. this, the median between hospital admission and deaths is 13 days. Two weeks ago (but even before) the Omicron variant was ultra prevalent (over 90%) therefore we can no longer say that the present deaths are due to Delta. Unfortunately they are the result especially Omicron, which may well be a cold but hits hard, even if we pretend not to notice it “.