• Wed. Oct 27th, 2021

Ciciliano (Cts): “Overcoming the RT? Can it be calculated on hospitalizations”


May 9, 2021

” Overcoming the RT? As a technical-scientific committee, we have already expressed our opinion on this last month. We suggested calculating the RT on admissions to covid wards and intensive care for two reasons: first because in this way the data would be more recent and collected more quickly and second because in this way the impact of the pandemic could be assessed. on regional health systems, suffering less from the fluctuations caused by the number of positive swabs ”. This was stated in an interview with Adnkronos Fabio Ciciliano, secretary in the first CTS and now a member of the scientific technical committee launched by the Draghi government representing the Civil Protection Department, when asked about the proposal made by the president of the Conference of the Regions, Massimiliano Fedriga, of review the Rt. ” The Rt index calculated in this way would acquire greater significance with the increase in the number of citizens vaccinated and we would therefore have the simultaneous registration of serious cases – explains Ciciliano – At this moment what interests us, are not so much the numbers of infections , which are obviously important, but in a summer projection the goal is that the intensive care units and the covid departments are emptied to remain stably below the critical threshold. Ciciliano, in addition to being a member of the CTS, is a medical director of the Police. An expert in emergency management, he took the field for the resolution of numerous critical situations both abroad, from the nuclear disaster in Fukushima to the cholera epidemic in Haiti up to the earthquakes in India and Pakistan, and in our country, from the earthquake of ‘Aquila and what hit central Italy in 2016. Ciciliano gives a positive reading of the latest weekly monitoring, which the CTS deals with every Friday. ” Friday’s data – he says – tell of a situation in clear improvement from the point of view of numbers, even if there is a slight increase in RT compared to the previous week, all the other indicators are going in the desired direction, especially the hospitalizations and intensive care places. This is a result that must also be attributed to the surge in the vaccination campaign, accompanied by the fact that the heat has led people to stay more on the street than indoors. As known outdoors, the transmission capacity of the virus is greatly reduced. ” And on the hypothesis of extending the curfew, a subject that continues to be discussed, the former secretary of the CTS explains: “ On this the Committee he never spoke, there are very few elements to evaluate the question from a scientific point of view and therefore it is an exclusively political decision. There is no doubt that the curfew limits the movement of people and therefore if there are fewer people around there is less ability to transmit the virus ”. During the pandemic, in the face of the images of gatherings, the finger has been pointed several times at the lack of controls. On this issue Ciciliano has no doubts: ” Checks must be carried out, they are certainly a deterrent, they give a sense of justice and the presence of the State in the territory, but if we expect them to be the solution to the increase in infections then the discourse changes . Control can be put in place in the nightlife areas but it is clear that it is not possible to control all the gatherings. However capillary police controls may be alone cannot contain the epidemic. It is a false image. We must be careful to say that since people gather and there are no controls, then the increase in infections is attributable to the lack of controls: it is impossible to support such a thing. ” According to the police officer, ” the speech it is sociological, it is a question of appealing to the responsibility of each of us. The important aspect that must be emphasized is that people have become accustomed to hearing the 2-300 deaths a day. And this is not good, it is the addiction to risk that leads you to disregard the information provided. Often the problem is not perceived until it happens to have a serious case of Covid that affects a relative or a friend, at that moment the risk perspective changes ”. On the suspension of vaccine patents, Ciciliano stresses that “conceptually it could be a very positive thing”. ” We should make a reasoning that does not only concern our country but also the most unfortunate countries of us, which do not have the economic capacity to bear the costs of vaccines as we Westerners manage to do – he adds – The discourse of patents could go in a direction of international aid for the management of the pandemic. It is clear that then there is a discourse concerning intellectual property. In the meantime, the important thing is that the vaccines arrive in large quantities and without holes in the supplies. ” On 5 May the CTS officially expressed itself recommending the administration of the second dose of the vaccines at mRna 42 days from the first, an indication then taken a circular from the Ministry of Health. ” The goal – explains Ciciliano – is to give more people the opportunity to be vaccinated with the first dose on the model of Great Britain, with the awareness that in a few weeks the supply of vaccines will increase. In this way it will be possible to vaccinate as many people as possible also because the quota of vaccines that should be kept for the second dose can instead be used on other people. It is a strategy that may be right when you have few vaccines. If we also look at the results of Great Britain and Ireland, we see that vaccination coverage with a single dose was absolutely adequate, so much so that there was a significant reduction in the number of deaths per day to almost zero. ” ‘hypothesis that the first vaccinated, such as doctors and health care workers, are at risk of coverage, the medical director of the Police concludes:’ ‘This concerns more than anything else the discourse of the green pass, which takes into account the six months after the vaccine vaccination coverage. The scientific data on the subject are not uniquely interpretable. There are population studies which have shown, after months, the persistence of antibodies, others the reduction of antibodies but in any case a preserved immunological capacity. Of the people who had covid last year, during the first wave, very few got sick again. This means that an antibody cover can remain preserved even after many months ”. (by Giorgia Sodaro)