After a rather cool and perturbed Spring and an early stage of June with lots of rainfall and subdued temperatures, in the last few days we are already experiencing the first heat flare-ups. The question arises: what should we expect for the next few months? To answer this question we must rely on the so-called long-term climate projections or seasonal forecasts: an attempt to predict, well in advance, the meteorological trend in broad lines over vast area scales. One method of making these predictions is to evaluate a series of indices (solar, atmospheric, oceanic and other) and possible teleconnections (“if this happens in this part of the planet, then statistically after some time in that other part of the planet the planet will happen like this … “). In Europe, the leader in the sector is the European Center for Medium-term Meteorological Forecasting, ECMWF, in Reading (UK). Well let’s start immediately by saying that the next weeks of June and the first part of July could be almost “tropical” due to a vast high pressure field of African origin which is destined to impose itself more and more significantly on the Mediterranean basin: if this is confirmed, we expect thermal values up to 6 ° C above the climatic averages Given the sub-tropical origin (inland of the Sahara Desert) of the air masses, in addition to the much sun, we expect a further rise in temperatures, especially at C within the South and on the two major islands: this will probably translate into real flare-ups of heat, with the thermometers ready to splash up to 38/41 ° C so much that they would risk “collapsing” the records of the infamous summer 2003. The downside of this particular synoptic condition is represented by the risk of extreme weather events.This is the fundamental point: with the heat the potential energy involved also increases and above all the thermal contrasts are particularly enhanced, creating a deadly mix for development. of massive storm cells, even up to 10/15 km high. These phenomena often affect restricted areas, which is why weather forecasting in the very short term (nowcasting) becomes fundamental in order to alert potentially affected areas as quickly as possible.In particular in the Central-Northern regions, the greatest risks arise when, after a heat wave in the lower layers of the atmosphere, large quantities of humidity and heat stagnate. Subsequently, at the first fresh and unstable gust at high altitude (usually downhill from Northern Europe), the convective motions (hot air rising) favor the genesis of particularly violent thunderstorms, with a high risk of hailstorms and in some cases, more rare, even tornadoes, while in the south and on the two major islands, the greatest danger is represented by flash floods. These are phenomena capable of discharging to the ground in a few hours the rain that normally falls over a period of months, in a sudden and circumscribed manner.This is likely to be the trend also for the rest of the summer season. In fact, the seasonal maps of the European Center for next July show temperature anomalies up to + 1 / 1.5 ° C compared to the reference climatic averages (1993-2016). The main cause of these anomalies will be the African anticyclone that sends hot air masses with high humidity levels from the Sahara Desert. This could probably translate into heat waves arriving from Africa, with peaks ready to splash well over 35 ° C in Valpadana, on the inland areas of the two major islands and on part of the central-southern peninsula. the trend voted to heat also for the month of August, traditionally the highlight of the Italian holidays: well, it seems that we will have to deal with temperatures well above the average of about + 1 ° C: consequently, it is reasonable to expect a rather hot month , especially in the Center-North. Slightly different speech for the South and for the two major islands, where the anomalies would be more contained (+ 0.5 ° C compared to the reference average). Although there is a certain margin of uncertainty, what has been said is all true; these are not far-fetched forecasts, but one of the main scenarios proposed by the authoritative European Center.