Covid, Gimbe: “The circulation of the Delta variant increases in Italy”

The circulation of the Delta variant of Covid in Italy increases. This is what emerges from the independent monitoring of the Gimbe Foundation for the week 9-15 June 2021. According to the latest survey of the prevalence of variants published by the Higher Institute of Health on 18 May – the report reads – the Delta variant (more contagious of about 60% compared to the English variant) is 1% with regional differences and a range from 0 to 3.4%: in particular, the greatest diffusion is recorded in Lazio (3.4%), Sardinia ( 2.9%) and Lombardy (2.5%). However – it is highlighted in the monitoring – in the last week the Delta variant was isolated in two outbreaks in Milan and Brindisi, a sign of its greater diffusion on the national territory which is also detected by the international Gisaid database: compared to sequencing on samples collected May 19 to June 16, out of 881 sequences deposited 57 (6.5%) correspond to the Delta variant. Compared to the efficacy of vaccines – the document recalls – according to data from Public Health England, a single dose of vaccine (Pfizer-BioNTech or AstraZeneca) has an efficacy of only 33% against this variant, a percentage that after the second dose it rises, respectively, to 88% and 60%. Furthermore, the latest English study (Public Health England) certifies that the effectiveness of the complete cycle in preventing hospitalizations is 96% with the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine and 92% with the AstraZeneca one. LESS TESTS, UNDERESTIMATION NUMBER OF NEW CASES “For 13 consecutive weeks there has been a decrease in new weekly cases. If the constant reduction of the positive / tested cases ratio attests to a reduced circulation of the virus, the progressive decrease in testing activity underestimates the number of new cases and documents the failure to resume contact tracing, which is fundamental in this phase of the pandemic “, says Nino Cartabellotta, president of the Gimbe Foundation, presenting the monitoring. “In the last 5 weeks, in fact, the number of people tested – indicates the report – decreased by 31.5%, dropping from 3,247,816 to 2,223,782, with a national average of 132 people tested / day per 100,000 inhabitants and relevant and unjustified regional differences “Monitoring therefore notes that new infections continue to decrease. In the week 9-15 June 2021, compared to the previous one, 11,440 cases (compared to 15,288 in the previous week) and 411 deaths (against 469). Currently positive cases are also decreasing (105,906 vs 181,726), people in home isolation (102,069 vs 176,353), hospitalizations with symptoms (3,333 vs 4,685) and intensive care (504 vs 688). CONSTANTLY DECREASING DEATH FROM 9 WEEKS In all Regions, the decrease in new weekly cases is confirmed (the percentage increase in Molise is irrelevant in absolute value). In addition, deaths have also been steadily decreasing for 9 weeks, reaching an average of 59 per day in the last week. “The constant reduction of hospitalized patients – says Renata Gili, Head of Research on Health Services of the Gimbe Foundation – has brought the occupation of beds by Covid patients to 6% both in the medical area and in intensive care, with all Regions well below the alert thresholds “. In detail, from the peak of April 6, the number of beds occupied in the medical area fell from 29,337 to 3,333 (-88.6%) and those in intensive care from 3,743 to 504 (-86.5%). Following the adjustment of the Campania Region, then, from the peak of March 28, people in home isolation fell from 540,855 to 102,069 (-81.1%). “Daily admissions to intensive care – explains Marco Mosti, operational director of the Gimbe Foundation – have fallen for 10 consecutive weeks and are now stable with a 7-day moving average of 22 admissions / day”.