Covid, Sestili: “At Christmas peak with 30 thousand infections”

“We are still in the growth phase of the” Covid “contagions, of the expansion of the epidemic. But this growth is slowing, week after week. Just look at the data. A month ago, from week to week there was a growth of the 50%. Then we moved on to an increase of 25%, reaching the last seven days of 13%. ” To say this, in an interview with Corriere della Sera, Giorgio Sestili, scientific physicist who has analyzed the evolution of the curves of the epidemic data, pointing out that now “we are reaching the peak of infections, at Christmas, about 30 thousand”. After that, “we could stay in a plateau for a long time, a stationary phase. Or we could begin to descend with a variable speed”, it depends on the vaccination trend and the measures that will be taken: “inserting the regions in the yellow zones means making them safe “. According to Sestili, “for intensive care we will reach a peak within a few days. The same can be said for the evolution of the death curve which in the last week increased by 10%, even here to a much lesser extent than last week. previous “. As in the case of infections, the decline in the number of beds occupied in intensive care and the number of deaths will depend on some variables: “It will definitely be related to vaccinations. I would like to be optimistic,” he says. “In recent weeks – explains the physicist – the number of first doses has increased by 20% (plus 230 thousand), or almost one million in the last month. It means that something is changing among the unvaccinated. It was not taken for granted. in particular they are getting vaccinated between the ages of 19 and 29. Soon, then, the vaccinations of children will also begin. Continuing at this pace we could have a quiet winter, with an epidemic under control “. Finally, the taxman Sextili, making a forecast in the short term, it says: “No region will go into the orange or red zone in the next month.”