Covid, Gimbe: “First decline in infections after 9 weeks”

For the first time after 9 consecutive weeks of increase, there is a decline in covid-19 infections. This is highlighted by the new independent monitoring of the Gimbe Foundation. The reference week is that from 1 to 7 September, compared to the previous week, and the decrease was equal to 12.5% ​​(39,511 compared to 45,134 new cases). Currently positive cases (133,787 vs 137,925) and people in home isolation (128,917 vs 133,129) are also decreasing, while there is a slight increase in hospitalizations with symptoms (4,307 vs 4,252) and intensive care (563 vs 544). “For the first time since the end of June, new weekly cases have decreased – declares Nino Cartabellotta, president of Gimbe – both in absolute numbers and as an average of daily cases which stands at 5,644”. In the last monitored week (1-7 September) compared to the previous one, only 3 Regions recorded a percentage increase in new cases, while in 9 Regions the currently positive cases grow, while 63 Provinces have an incidence equal to or greater than 50 cases for 100,000 inhabitants: in Emilia-Romagna, Sardinia, Sicily, Tuscany and Umbria all the provinces reach or exceed this threshold. In 7 Provinces there are over 150 cases per 100,000 inhabitants: Syracuse (231), Messina (189), Ragusa (170), Trapani (170), Catania (165), Prato (164) and Caltanissetta (159) (table 2) . Deaths are on the rise: 417, 82 of which related to previous periods. “On the hospital front – says Renata Gili, Head of Research on Health Services of the Foundation – it further slows down the increase in beds for Covid patients: compared to the previous week, only 1.3% in the medical area and 3.5% in intensive care “. At the national level, the employment rate remains low (7% in the medical area and 6% in the critical area), albeit with considerable regional differences (figure 5): for the medical area they are above the 15% threshold Sicily (23% ) and Calabria (19%); for the critical area above the 10% threshold Sicily (13%) and Sardinia (15%). “Daily admissions to intensive care are stable – explains Marco Mosti, Gimbe Operations Director – with a 7-day moving average of 42 admissions / day compared to 43 the previous week”. “In the face of a political debate and public communication that target percentages of vaccination coverage are chasing it is good to remember that today there are no epidemiological conditions to achieve the so-called herd immunity, able to protect the unvaccinated thanks to a high percentage of people no longer susceptible to contagion, because they have been vaccinated or cured ” From Covid-19, says Cartabellotta The reasons why it is not possible at the moment to achieve herd immunity, according to Gimbe are: no vaccine is approved for subjects under 12 years of age: over 5.8 million people (9 , 9% of the population) including the virus continues to circulate freely; approved vaccines are not sterilizing, that is, they do not confer total immunity against the virus and even those who are vaccinated have a much lower chance of becoming infected and transmitting the virus. At the moment in Italy the vaccine efficacy against infection is around 78%. younger age groups; in low-income countries less than 2% of the population has received at least one dose of the vaccine: this inhomogeneity in access to vaccines contributes to the high circulation of the virus and the emergence of new variants. “In the face of the high efficacy profile and safety demonstrated by the administration of over 5 and a half billion doses of vaccine all over the world – concludes Cartabellotta – it is useless to pursue the chimera of a percentage of the vaccinated population able to ‘turn off’ the switch of viral circulation. of public health is to vaccinate all those who do not have specific contraindications, in order both to provide individual protection from serious illness or death, in particular for those over 50, and to minimize viral circulation. today based on robust evidence – he concludes – it is up to politics to choose the strategy with which to achieve it: from a scientific point of view all the cards are or in good standing to establish the vaccination obligation “.