Covid Italia, Sestili: “Spike in infections around Christmas”

Coronavirus infections in Italy, the analyzes “tell us that we are most likely close to the peak of Covid cases which could arrive around Christmas”. So at Adnkronos Salute the physicist Giorgio Sestili who has been analyzing and monitoring the epidemic of Sars-CoV-2 since the beginning of the pandemic. “The forecasts made by me and Roberto Battiston that a month ago we were talking about a peak of 25-30 thousand would be confirmed and it seems to me that the data are confirming the forecast. In the last week there was a 22% increase in positives compared to to the previous 7 days, but if we see this increase it is slowly decreasing because we have gone from + 50% to + 30% and now to + 22%. There is therefore a slowdown in the growth trend “is the analysis by Sestili for the ‘Adnkronos Health. With regard to intensive care admissions and deaths “the graphs of the weekly average show that the two curves have hunched and we will slowly see the values ​​drop”, says Sestili, creator of the Facebook page’ Coronavirus – Data and analysis scientific ‘, on the web with its own website www.giorgiosestili.it. But how is all this possible? “There is the effect of the third doses that are running a lot – explains the physicist – especially in frail and elderly people. There is also an aspect that can make us optimistic, 230 thousand first doses have been recorded in a month – observes – an important fact in a country where we have understood that there is a hard core of no-vax. If we look at the age of these people, they are often young people between 19 and 29. It is a slice of the population that does not fill hospitals however, he has a very active social life and can be a vehicle for contagion “. What predictions can be made for the Regions that are in the balance between the white and yellow areas? “The infections will grow for 2-3 weeks but the hospitals will not reach saturation levels seen in the past – replies Sestili -. But it is clear that there will be Regions that will go yellow and this is good because, thanks to reinforced measures, it will be possible to further limit the risk of contagion “. Finally, from 16 December vaccinations will start in the age group 5-11 years. What impact will they have? “Surely they will affect – concludes Sestili – because in that age group there are 20% of infections in the last 30 days, data from the ISS. It is a non-immunized slice of population that can now be vaccinated and this will be really important “.