• Sat. Nov 27th, 2021

Covid today Italy, Gimbe report: “Infections, hospitalizations and deaths on the rise”

Byeditorial

Nov 25, 2021

Covid today Italy, “for the fifth consecutive week the new weekly cases” of Covid-19 increase nationwide, marking a “+ 27%, with a 7-day moving average more than quadrupled: from 2,456 on October 15 to 9,866 on November 23 “. This was underlined by Nino Cartabellotta, president of the Gimbe Foundation, in the independent monitoring for the week from 17 to 23 November. Seven days in which the new cases pass from 54,370 to 69,060, but the number of hospitalized patients with symptoms also increased by 15.8% (+627, 4,597 vs 3,970), by 16.4% the patients in intensive care (+79, 560 vs 481) and 8.7% deaths (437 vs 402, of which 25 referring to previous periods), on average 62 per day compared to 57 in the previous week. People in home isolation rose by 25.6% (+30.408, 149.353 vs 118.945), the currently positive cases by 25.2% (+31.114, 154.510 vs 123.396). “The increase in viral circulation is well documented by the increase in both the positive / people tested ratio (from 3.6% to 14.7%) – observes Cartabellotta – and the positive / molecular swabs ratio (from 2.4% to 6.3%) and rapid positive / antigenic swabs (0.07% to 0.27%) “. In all regions, except Basilicata – this is the weekly ‘map’ drawn by Gimbe – there is a percentage increase in new cases, with variations ranging from + 1.3% in Tuscany to + 124.3% in Valle D ‘ Aosta. In 92 provinces there is an incidence equal to or greater than 50 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants: in Abruzzo, Campania, Emilia Romagna, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Lazio, Liguria, Lombardy, Marche, Piedmont and Veneto all provinces exceed this threshold. And in 18 provinces there are over 150 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants: Trieste (674), Gorizia (492), Bolzano (442), Forlì-Cesena (311), Padua (274), Rimini (249), Aosta (248), Ravenna (214), Treviso (213), Venice (213), Vicenza (200), Pordenone (186), Udine (183), Fermo (172), Ascoli Piceno (166), Belluno (162), La Spezia (162 ) and Imperia (160). “When the incidence exceeds 150 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants – points out Cartabellotta – local administrators must promptly verify the existence of outbreaks and decide on any targeted restrictions to stem the spread of the infection, as already done by the Province Autonomous Province of Bolzano “.” On the hospital front – says Renata Gili, Head of Research on Health Services of the Gimbe Foundation – there is a further increase in the number of beds occupied by Covid patients: compared to the previous week “, in fact,” + 15.8% in the medical area and + 16.4% in intensive care “. In absolute terms, the number of Covid patients in the medical area went from 2,371 on October 16 to 4,597 on November 23 (+ 93.9%) and that in intensive care from 338 on October 25 to 560 on November 23 (+65, 7%). At the national level, as of 23 November, the employment rate was 8% in the medical area and 6% in the critical area, but with significant regional differences: for the medical area they exceed the 15% threshold in the autonomous province of Bolzano ( 16%) and Friuli Venezia Giulia (18%) which with 14% exceeds even that of 10% for the critical area. “Daily admissions to intensive care continue to increase – explains Marco Mosti, operational director of the Gimbe Foundation – The 7-day moving average has gone from 38 admissions / day the previous week to 48”. Anti-covid vaccine In Italy, the recalls “of the anti-Covid vaccine are” clearly delayed, the booster doses that “by the end of the year affect 22.6 million people”. Even if there are “a slight increase in daily doses, to cover people called to the third dose by 31 December, the rate should rise to over 600 thousand doses per day”. The Gimbe Foundation estimates that, according to ministerial indications, the people who can receive the booster dose by the end of 2021 are a total of 27.3 million: 15.19 million over 60 who have completed the cycle with any vaccine by 3 August; 822,000 under 60 who received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine by 3 August; 11.28 million people aged between 40 and 59 who completed the vaccination course with Pfizer, Moderna or AstraZeneca by 3 August. Due to the unavailability of some data, these numbers could be underestimated on the one hand (they do not include healthcare personnel and RSA guests under 60), and on the other hand overestimated (they include people recovered for less than 6 months and the deceased belonging to the categories mentioned above) . Having said that, considering that 3.91 million booster doses and 764 thousand additional doses have already been administered to date, up to 22.62 million third doses should be administered by 31 December, equal to an average of over 610 thousand doses per day. day. “On this front – comments Nino Cartabellotta, president of the Gimbe Foundation – 2.1 million over 80, 4.4 million 70-79 year-olds, 5.1 million 60-69 year-olds and 6.2 million 50-year-olds are particularly worrying – 59-year-olds who, given the data on vaccination efficacy at 6 months and in the face of the upcoming Christmas holidays which will certainly imply an increase in social contacts indoors, are still discovered by the booster dose “. On November 24 – reads the Gimbe report – 4,673,047 third doses were administered, of which 763,960 additional doses and 3,909,087 booster doses, with a 7-day moving average of nearly 170,000 doses per day. Also on 24 November, on the official repository of the extraordinary commissioner for the coronavirus emergency, the audience for the booster dose (13,435,287) was updated according to the indications of the ministerial circulars of 3 November and 11 November. However, the decision of the Italian drug agency Aifa, which allows the administration of the booster dose starting from the fifth month from the completion of the primary cycle, has not yet been implemented. Adding the 895,460 immunocompromised patients, the overall audience for the third dose includes 14,330,747 people. The national vaccination coverage rate for additional doses is 85.3% with clear regional differences, the Foundation underlines: it ranges from 6.7 % of Valle D’Aosta to 100% of Abruzzo, Campania, Emilia Romagna, Liguria, Molise, autonomous province of Bolzano, Piedmont, Sardinia, Sicily, Tuscany and Umbria. The national coverage with booster dose is 29.1%, again with considerable differences between regions: ranging from 14.9% in Sicily to 46.8% in Molise.

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