OECD: in Italy vaccines and fewer restrictions will guide the recovery

The increase in vaccines in Italy, together with fewer restrictions with the consequent reopening, will drive the country’s economic recovery. This is said by the OECD in the new Outlook, foreseeing the relaxation of many restrictions by this summer. The vaccination campaign in Italy, we read, “is accelerating after a slow start, hindered mainly by supply and distribution problems at a European level and by uncertainty about side effects”. The Italian government, it is also recalled, aims to vaccinate 80% of the population (41.5 million people) by September 2021. Read also But with the stop to the moratoriums on bank loans, extended until December 31, 2021, we would go meeting an increase in business failures, notes the OECD, which writes: “The great stimulus of the government, the increase in vaccination rates and the relaxation of restrictions will drive the economic recovery. The manufacturing sector and exports will drive recovery, as global growth rebounds, supporting private sector investment. Increased public investment, including those based on the Next Generation EU, will further help attract private investment. The service sector will recover as restrictions are eased and the vaccination of the population most at risk “, writes the OECD, noting instead that” bankruptcies will increase in 2022 when the debt moratoriums with the no rmalization of the “short-term system” for the administration of bankruptcy cases and civil courts will need additional resources and to automate certain processes to manage the increase in “bankruptcy” cases that will follow the removal of support measures “. The alert variants” There remains substantial uncertainty about the evolution of the virus. There is the possibility of new, more contagious and lethal variants that are more resistant to existing vaccines, unless effective vaccinations are rapidly and completely spread everywhere “, reads the Outlook. New infections – it is emphasized – would require a new round “of strict containment measures, with associated economic costs linked to lower confidence and spending.” “After sixteen months of the pandemic, many countries are coping better with the new variants of the virus. Governments have administered nearly 2 billion doses of the vaccine and the global capacity to test, manufacture and administer vaccines has improved rapidly. “So Laurence Boone, chief economist of the OECD in the editorial of the new Outlook.” The world economy – adds – is currently sailing towards recovery, with many adverse winds. The risk that sufficient post-pandemic growth is not achieved or not widely shared is high. This will greatly depend on the adoption of flexible and sustainable policy frameworks, and on the quality of international cooperation. “That is why it is” the top political priority is to ensure that all necessary resources are used to distribute vaccinations as quickly as possible around the world to saving lives, preserving incomes and limiting the negative impact of containment measures. Stronger international efforts are needed to provide low-income countries with the resources they need to vaccinate their populations for their personal and global benefits. The organization highlights how “never in a crisis has political support – be it health care, with the record speed of vaccine development, monetary, fiscal or financial – been so fast and effective” and this “should limit the scars resulting from crisis”. Although, it is noted, “too many headwinds persist.” For the OECD “it is very worrying that vaccines are not yet widespread enough in emerging and low-income economies. This is exposing these economies to a fundamental threat because they have less political capacity. to sustain activity relative to advanced economies. A new virus-driven growth weakening would be more difficult to mitigate, resulting in a further increase in acute poverty and potentially funding problems. ” This – he concludes – is all the more worrying because, despite the impact on lives and livelihoods, “the global economic and social cost of maintaining closed borders far outweighs the costs of making vaccines, tests and health supplies. more widely available for these countries “.