Industrial production, no growth but prospects remain positive

The rise in industrial production stops in the third quarter of 2021 but the prospects for the economic trend in the next three months remain positive. It is the CSC rapid survey that takes stock of the situation of manufacturing in Italy. “Italian industrial production grew in the period July-September 2021 by 0.5% quarterly, or at a physiologically slower pace than that observed in the first two quarters which respectively recorded + 1.2% and + 1.5% quarterly “, reads the Report which notes how the expectations on the economic trend have instead” significantly improved “. “The demand remained strong and the uncertainty about the possible economic repercussions of any tightening of administrative restrictions due to the pandemic has been greatly attenuated”. The prospects, therefore, still write the economists of Confindustria, “remain positive”. Returning to the decline recorded in the third quarter, the CSC recorded a 0.2% reduction in activity in August (after the 0.8% increase recorded by Istat in July), followed by a further decrease of 0.3 % in September explained by a greater use of inventories, by possible bottlenecks in the supply along the international production chain due to the scarcity of some components and raw materials and by the production slowdown of the main commercial partners in the 2nd quarter of 2021. cyclical indicators relating to the 3rd quarter continued to indicate “an expansive dynamic of activity in industry, but slightly attenuating”: the confidence of manufacturing and service companies in August and September in fact, the economists of Viale dell ‘still write Astronomy, “worsened, due to the slowdown in judgments and expectations on production levels, and on orders (still very expansive), due to the ex tero “. The scarcity of manpower and the insufficiency of materials are also perceived as factors of increasing obstacle to production despite the degree of use of the plants by manufacturing companies in the 2nd quarter reached the highest value since December 2018 (77.4 %). The Csc note, which is based on the companies in the IHS-Markit sample, also weighed negatively “the interruptions in the distribution chain, which led to a further lengthening of average delivery times and an increase in outstanding work”. Another factor also affected, which according to Confindustria “could have some unfavorable effects also in the months to come”: the moderation of the economic activity of the commercial partners considering that German production in the 2nd quarter fell by 1.0% in the economy, and the French one by 0.9%