For CEOs, recession is coming but it will be short

Globally, 86% of company CEOs anticipate a recession in the coming months, although 58% expect it to be light and short. This is what emerges from the Kpmg ‘Ceo Outlook 2022’ report which collects the opinions of more than 1,300 CEOs of the largest companies in the world on the prospects of the global economy and on the strategies to respond to the context. 73% of CEOs predict that the recession will disrupt their organization’s expected growth, but three-quarters, 76%, have already taken precautionary measures in view of a looming recession. On the other hand, Italian ADs are more optimistic about a possible recession, but also less prepared to face it: 72% of respondents believe that there will be a recession in the next 12 months, 44% believe it will be short and mild, while only 52% have already taken precautionary measures in view of a looming recession. 14% of global CEOs identify the risk of a recession as one of the most pressing concerns at this stage, even if the difficulties related to the pandemic are currently considered the most critical issue (15%). The Italian CEOs, on the other hand, indicated the adoption of digital technologies (18%), the difficulties linked to the pandemic (16%) and reputational risks (14%) as the main concern for the growth of their company. Among the main risk factors that could affect business growth over the next three years, global CEOs have identified new technologies, operational issues, regulation, climate risk and reputational risk. The Italian CEOs, on the other hand, indicated the risk of a return to territorialism (16%), reputational risks (14%) and operational risks (14%). Reputational risk, and therefore the danger of a misalignment with respect to the perception of own company by customers and the public, is causing greater concern among CEOs than at the beginning of 2022 (10% in August versus 3% in February). So much so that, in response to geopolitical challenges, 51% of global organizations have stopped working with Russia and 34% plan to do so in the next six months. Strategic alliances (26%), organic growth (22%) and geopolitical risk management (20%) are at the top of the list of the most important strategies for achieving company growth objectives over the next three years. The CEOs, according to the Kpmg report, indicate that geopolitical uncertainties will continue to have an important impact on corporate strategies and supply chains over the next 3 years. Notably, 81% of CEOs have modified or plan to adjust risk management processes to take into account geopolitical risk, and 21% will strengthen measures to adapt to geopolitical issues to achieve their growth targets. which rises to 34% for Italians. In a context such as the current one, characterized by uncertainty and with geopolitical tensions at the center of the 2022 agenda, CEOs must be prepared to face risks, according to the report.