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Elections 2022, Reichlin: “The only fear in a short period of ungovernability, if the right wins but is divided”

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“In the short term the only justified fear with respect to the electoral result would be that of ungovernability: if the right were to win but found itself divided internally, it would be worrying”. The economist Lucrezia Reichlin, full professor of Economics at the London Business School, tells Adnkronos about the outcome of the political elections. If the center-right coalition were to win the elections “I don’t believe at all” that there would be a collapse of the markets. In the medium term, the concern is that this victory has repercussions on the EU federal project, according to Reichlin. “In the medium term – underlines the economist – the fear is that, at a time when Europe must take important decisions, such as those on energy, and must do so in a united way, a coalition that does not believe in enlargement federal competences but only to a structure that does the bare minimum together, in short, strengthening a Parliament that sees it in this way would mean a weakening of the European project, which in my opinion is fundamental “. After all, according to Reichlin, “even the German chancellery and the French presidency share this concern. That said, I do not believe at all that there will be a collapse of the markets or the like”. , the economist argues that “some things will certainly need to be revised, if only because the contracts concluded in the pre-war era must be revised in the light of the rise in inflation. After all, it was a theme that had already emerged during the Draghi government”. The point, in Reichlin’s opinion, is that “we need to understand what ‘review’ means. The two priority pillars of the NRP, namely the Green deal and digitization, should not be reviewed, because a very complicated discussion would open up on that. we also got that money because there was a common will to go in a certain direction, which is what I have just indicated. “As for a possible tightening of sanctions and measures by the EU following Putin’s escalation in the war in Ukraine, the economist states: “The price cap on oil in my opinion is difficult to do, unless other countries agree, and not just the United States. The discourse on Russian gas is different, because in this case Europe is a quasi-monopoly importer “. “With oil, due to secondary sanctions, other countries could find themselves in serious trouble, such as China and India, which continue to import Russian oil,” explains Reichlin. Therefore, “we would need international coordination that goes beyond NATO, and let us not forget that Turkey is not too enthusiastic either. There are various risks to be pondered”. In energy matters, “the EU has given some recommendations that I share” , says the economist, “on energy saving, on gas and on the idea of ​​giving compensation to those who are most affected but without encouraging fossil fuels. Let’s not forget, for example, that in Italy the demand for gas has not decreased despite the crisis”. “We must keep in mind – Reichlin underlines – that we must certainly calm down prices but at the same time keep the bar firm on the energy transition and renewables, otherwise in a few years we will find ourselves in very bad shape”. What the Commission is trying to do is therefore acceptable, in the opinion of the economist, who, however, finds it “less exciting that it has not been possible to reach a common vision, so that each government goes out of order”. Reichlin therefore underlines the need to have “a common vision on the reform of the electricity market. We remember that it is a European market, therefore we need a shared European reform, as well as on the price cap on Russian gas, even if now the latter it is no longer so decisive since Russia has cut off supplies. Perhaps it should have been done earlier, now it is too late “. Another point on which the economist emphasizes is that of the monetary tightening of the EU. “The problem – he says – is that energy policies as a whole must be in balance with monetary policy, so as not to cancel the effects of the rise in interest rates, with Germany, for example, which has already field 65 billion and Italy 30. It is necessary to reconcile these two aspects “, concludes the economist.

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