Banks, 82 billion of new impaired loans are expected in three years

Non-performing loans on the balance sheets of Italian banks will return to increase. In the three-year period 2022-2024 82 billion euros of new flows of impaired loans are expected, with an increase of 10 billion, with a peak expected in 2023. This is what the Banca Ifis Npl Market Watch, presented during the work of ‘Future Proof ‘, the 11th edition of the Npl Meeting organized by the institute, held today in Villa Erba, Cernobbio, on Lake Como. According to the report, some elements of stability in the Italian economy could mitigate the increase: the wealth and modest indebtedness of households, the resilience of businesses that continue to invest, public interventions and the improvement of the solidity and profitability of banks that already at the end of 2021 they had reached an NPE ratio of 4.1%, lower than the EBA target of 5%. A figure that at the end of this year, according to estimates, will drop to 3.2%. The Italian NPL sector has seen the importance of its role grow, allowing banks to carry out a significant de-risking on their balance sheets, with an estimated € 357 billion of NPE portfolios sold between 2015 and 2022. of the vitality of the NPL industry, according to the Banca Ifis study, also a continuous growth in revenues from 2013 to 2021 (+ 90%), which will continue with an increase of 9% in 2022 and 4% in 2023, with expected high sales (47 billion euro of NPE in 2023 and 33 billion in 2024). In addition, in the first 9 months of 2022, 22 billion euros of NPL and UTP portfolios were transacted, while for the whole of 2022 NPL transactions for 35 billion euros are expected, with the secondary market, now an important component, which represents 30%. The non-performing loan management industry “over the years has played a decisive role in the stability of the financial system and has proved to be an asset for the country”, said Ernesto Fürstenberg Fassio, vice president of Banca Ifis.