Russian gas, how much does Nord Stream cost to Italy

The complete shutdown of the Russian gas supply through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline “further increases the probability of a recession in the eurozone” with effects also on the Italian economy. This is what the rating agency Fitch underlines in a report, underlining that a complete stop of Russian gas “would reduce the GDP level of the eurozone in 2023 by 1.5 percentage points – 2 percentage points compared to our Global Economic Outlook forecasts. published in June, with a reduction of about 3 percentage points in Germany and 2.5 percentage points in Italy. A recession of the eurozone starting from the second half of the year is therefore increasingly probable “. Before the shutdown, the Nord Stream 1 pipeline was only running at 20% capacity. The complete shutdown, the rating agency points out, “came four months earlier than we had previously assumed in our analysis”. However, the EU plan, supported by the increase in alternative gas supplies, in particular the record imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and the reduction of gas consumption by 15% in 2023 compared to 2021, “should contribute to avoid serious shortages “. The uncertainties related to the temperatures of the coming winter (a cold winter could increase demand by 5%), the timeliness of LNG deliveries, the ability of EU member states to coordinate efforts to overcome infrastructural bottlenecks and the evolution of the war in Ukraine, Fitch points out, “could affect the supply and demand for gas in the region. Exposure to Russian gas shutdown varies among EU countries. Nord-stream 1 supplies and low immediate options to diversify gas sources, such as Germany, have limited room for maneuver. “